In this issue we finish the second half of our detailed assessments of the marginal Rouse races as determined by our late July survey of experts who rated the status of each of the 435 races. We will do another survey of each of the races in mid-September, Based purely on national dynamics, our estimate (subject of course to our mid-September analysis of each of the races) is that the Republicans will probably gain 7 to 10 seats, up from our late July estimate of a 4 to 7 seat GOP gain. This projection is based on a number of observations. First, there is an increase in numbers of voters identifying themselves as Republicans. Second, there was a stabilization in the Presidential campaign after a roller-coaster period during and following the Democratic convention; third, there is the beginning of an increased flow of business PAC funds to GOP House challengers, though not yet at 1980 and 1982 levels.GOP Party identification increase.
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Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.