The Cook Political Report: December 11, 1996

While the outcomes of the 1996 Presidential and Senate races were fairly unremarkable, the fight for control of the House was truly fascinating. Arguably, a younger and more charismatic GOP presidential nominee might have run a few points better than former Sen. Robert Dole, and a better campaign also might have brought that race a couple of points closer. In retrospect, however, we doubt that any Republican, short of perhaps Colin Powell, would have won this year. With the advantage of 20-20 hindsight, we now see that President Clinton and his campaign performed almost flawlessly throughout the race; the amateurishness that was pervasive in the White House seemed to vanish after the 1994 midterm elections. We also see that the elements that usually trigger the re-election loss of incumbent Presidents did not appear, or at least were not recognized by voters. Despite soft spots here and there, the economy was strong, consumer confidence high, and inflation, interest rates and unemployment all low. While many foreign policy experts express disdain for the Administration's handling of international affairs, and the public does