At this point in the 1994 cycle, both the midterm election outlook and the national political environment seem to be influenced by a rather confounding set of contradictions. While the likelihood remains that Democrats will keep their 1994 House losses down to about 10 or 15 seats, normal for an election occuring midway through a president's first term, the odds are increasing that the majority party could incur some very serious losses in the Senate; today, we'd predict a loss of three or four seats, but that estimate could climb. While the resurging economy and declining (for now) federal budget deficit would logically create a kind of positive political climate for the Democratic party, the worsening Whitewater scandal and continuing anti-incumbent mood could negate any real Democratic advantages.
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