Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's surprise decision to run for Senate gives Democrats a credible challenger to GOP Sen. John McCain in 2016, but it also catapults her northern Arizona seat to the top of House Republicans' takeover target lists. Kirkpatrick is one of just five remaining Democrats occupying a seat President Obama lost in 2012; in fact just three of 188 House Democrats occupy seats more Republican than Kirkpatrick's. Kirkpatrick's 53 percent to 47 percent survival in 2014 was the product of several unique factors, including her strong relationship with the 1st CD's tribes (Native Americans are nearly a quarter of the population), and a brutal late August GOP primary that produced a weakened opponent, state House Speaker Andy Tobin. In fact, now that Tobin is running again, Democrats' best hope for keeping the seat may be a similar scenario in 2016. However, that will be extremely difficult without a personally popular incumbent like Kirkpatrick on the House ballot. And, it will be virtually impossible for Democrats to keep the seat if the Supreme Court rules against Arizona's Independent Redistricting

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