Surprise, surprise: if you guessed that DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-17) would be on the verge of defeat, but House Democrats would simultaneously defy pretty much everyone's expectations and cut their losses to single digits, you win the political prediction of the decade.
On A Knife's EdgeAt this writing, the House is still on a knife's edge. So far, Republicans have flipped eight Democratic districts (FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, NJ-07, TN-05, TX-15, VA-02 and WI-03) and have the lead in eight others (AZ-02, IA-03, MI-10, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, OR-05). But, Democrats have flipped six Republican seats so far (IL-13, MI-03, NM-02, NC-13 OH-01, TX-34) and lead in four others (AZ-01, CA-41, CO-08, WA-03).
220 Plus Or Minus 10The NBC News House estimate is that Republicans will win 220 seats plus or minus 10 seats, meaning the fate of the House rests with nine uncalled competitive races in California, six in New York, two in Nevada, two in Oregon, two in Arizona, two in Colorado and a smattering in other states. Republicans have a slightly better than even
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.