The unexpectedly narrow win last week by Republican Jean Schmidt in the special election in the overwhelmingly Republican 2nd CD of Ohio, combined with slumping approval ratings for Congress, the President and the war in Iraq, has some in Washington making comparisons to a 1994-like mid-term election that could ultimately sweep Republicans out of control of Congress in 2006. While there is little doubt that the environment looks grim at this point for Republicans, it is important to make some realistic assessments of the political playing field and to note the major differences between the upcoming 2006 election and that of 1994.
Recent polls hint at big troubles for incumbent Republicans. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (July 8-11) put Congress’s job approval at 28 percent, with 55 percent disapproving of the job Congress is doing. In that same poll, just 41 percent of respondents said they felt their own representative deserved to be re-elected. This is statistically the same as it was in October of 1994. In that October 14-18 NBC/WSJ poll just 39 percent of
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