Ratings Changes
AL-05 OPEN (Cramer) Solid Democratic to Toss Up LA-06 VACANT (Baker) Lean Republican to Toss UpModerate nine-term Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer’s decision to retire at the end of his term puts his northern Alabama district at the top of the GOP takeover target list. At a PVI of R+6, this Huntsville-based seat is seven points more Republican than any other open Democratic seat. As this is the first time the seat has been open in nearly two decades, look for a crowded field of candidates on both sides for the June 3rd primary. The race starts as a Toss Up.
Meanwhile, the special election to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker’s seat in Louisiana continues to give national Republicans heartburn. Less than three weeks away from the April 5th primary runoff, competitive primaries are playing out in both parties. Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites – moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins – would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May
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