Democrats' steady lead in generic congressional ballot polls points to big midterm danger for House Republicans. But at this point in an election cycle, race-by-race polling is scarce and it's tricky to predict which races will materialize for Democrats and which won't. Fortunately, the latest FEC reports give us some clues as to which Democratic challengers are the most serious competitors as primary season approaches. Republicans' biggest advantage, apart from district lines, remains incumbency. So far only four GOP members from marginal seats have announced they aren't running again in 2018, and the median GOP incumbent had $592,000 in the bank at the end of September. However, Democratic candidates are raising money at a blistering pace. They probably need to put about 50 GOP-held seats in play to win the majority, and with more than a year to go until next November, there are already 63 GOP-held districts where at least one Democratic challenger has raised more than $100,000, including 47 where at least one Democratic challenger has raised more than $200,000.

Meanwhile, several GOP incumbents are having a tough

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