The Cook Political Report: March 25, 1991

There are plenty of Senate races in 1992 that are clearly shaping up to be hotly contested, and many more that have the potential to be competitive depending upon the quality of the challenger and each party's success in the recruiting process. The Persian Gulf situation could come into play, particularly if promising prospective Democratic candidates become discouraged and unwilling to risk key challenger or open seat opportunities, or if many ambitious Republicans see 1992 as a terrific opportunity to seek higher office in a year that has the potential of a strong tail wind to accelerate their progress. Political observers should wait until summer at the earliest before making an assessment of any structural damage to the Democratic party or any fundamental shift in the partisan balance. Determinations at this stage are simply too premature. There is the very real possibility that Democratic self-inflicted wounds over the Persian Gulf could individually or collectively be troublesome well into the decade.