Senior GOP Official Sets Chances of Contested Convention at 15%

According to a senior Republican Party official, the chances of a contested convention when the GOP gathers in Cleveland in three weeks are a small but not negligible 15%. What’s in that 15%? Not credentials—a “nonissue,” the official says. Challenges have been filed involving only 48 (or 2%) of the 2,472 delegate slots: Colorado’s 37, one each in the Illinois and the District of Columbia delegations, and 9 from the Virgin Islands. Not the platform—another “nonissue,” mostly because the stakes are so low. Probably not the vice presidency, assuming (as this official does) that Donald Trump selects a “reasonable, mainstream” running mate such as Newt Gingrich, Bob Corker, Joni Ernst, Jeff Sessions, or Chris Christie. But “you could have a blow-up over vice president if he announces in advance of the convention that he is picking someone outside the mainstream—say, a Jesse Ventura.” What’s left? Only one possibility: “a big gap in the polls”—not just in an outlier but in the RCP average, which Republicans in particular trust. “A 15% gap might do it,” the GOP official says. “A 20%