While the Foley scandal has put more Republican-held House seats in jeopardy, it hasn’t had quite the same impact in Senate races. This is not to say that the overall Senate outlook has remained static; only that the Foley scandal has played a minor role.
By and large, the most competitive Senate races remain contests about vulnerable incumbents, and voters’ displeasure with President Bush and the war in Iraq. Many Republicans, especially those in blue states, felt the aftershocks of the revelations about former Rep. Mark Foley’s e-mail exchanges with House Pages, but other news—the release of Bob Woodward’s book, State of Denial, the release of parts of the National Intelligence Estimates and continued bad news from Iraq—likely contributed to reported dips in poll numbers. And while strategists believe there will be some settling of poll numbers, the truth is that already endangered Republican incumbents can’t afford a dip of any magnitude that might further impede their difficult task of holding their majority now that there are seven GOP-held seats in play, compared to just one for Democrats.
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