The Insider's Choice for Election Analysis

2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

February 8, 2010

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Democrats currently have 50 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 10 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AR-4 Mike Ross R+7
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+2
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8
IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
KY-3 John Yarmuth D+2
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
MN-1 Tim Walz R+1
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
PA-17 Tim Holden R+6
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
TN-4 Lincoln Davis R+13
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4

36 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
NY-29 Eric Massa R+5
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
PA-8 Patrick Murphy D+2
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan R+9
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2

26 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
KS-3 OPEN (Moore) R+3
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
PA-12 VACANT R+1
TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5
WA-3 OPEN (Baird) D+0

21 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
 

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25

2 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AR-1 OPEN (Berry) R+8
AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
PA-6 Jim Gerlach D+4
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3

7 REPUBLICANS
3 DEMOCRATS
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
AK-AL Don Young R+13
AZ-3 OPEN (Shadegg) R+9
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1
IN-3 Mark Souder R+14
KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0
MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
SC-1 OPEN (Brown) R+10
SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9
TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) R+13

16 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

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