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Cook Political Senate Updates

Is It Tea Time Everywhere?

March 9, 2010
When you have a theory about something, a useful exercise to conduct is to ask yourself, "If I am wrong, why am I wrong?" If you're intellectually honest, there's nobody better to poke holes in your theory than yourself. Presumably, you have studied and thought about the issue a great deal, and looked at it from many angles, and alternative theories would almost have to emerge.
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Cook Political Senate Updates

Kentucky Senate: Primary Contests Heat Up

March 11, 2010
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: With the May 18 primary less than 10 weeks away, the contests on both sides to select nominees for the general election to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Jim Bunning are starting to heat up.

Much of the activity has been in the Republican primary between frontrunners Secretary of State Trey Grayson and ophthalmologist Rand Paul, both of whom have launched their television advertising. By comparison, the Democratic primary between Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo has been relatively tame, but it didn’t start out that way.
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Cook Political House Updates

House District Analysis: HI-ID

March 11, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman releases baseline analysis for House races in Hawaii and Idaho, including the special election race to succeed Hawaii Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who has resigned to run for governor. Although the Aloha State's 1st CD is President Obama's native district and gave him 70 percent of the vote in 2008, the all-party, winner-take-all format of the special election gives GOP Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, the best-funded candidate in the race, a chance to shoot the gap and win a plurality over two serious Democrats.

The fact that this election will be conducted entirely by mail between April 30th and May 22nd (unprecedented in Hawaii House races) only adds to the special election's unpredictability. Democrats are hoping that Democratic former Rep. Ed Case takes a large enough share of independents and allows Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa to hold onto enough Democrats to win, but this could shape up to be a genuinely competitive three-way race.
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Cook Political Presidential Updates

Early Looks At GOP 2012 Contenders

March 6, 2010
Everything has to start somewhere, so the quest for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination more or less began at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington -- not that it's easy to take seriously any presidential nomination straw poll that Ron Paul wins.
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Cook Political House Updates

Delahunt's Retirement Moves MA-10 To Toss Up

March 5, 2010
It's been 16 years since any Republican won a House seat in Massachusetts. But Rep. Bill Delahunt's South Shore-Cape Cod district is the least Democratic in the state, sporting a Partisan Voter Index score of D+5. The last time this seat came open in 1996, Delahunt took only 54 percent of the general election vote after a contentious primary. And even though President Obama took 55 percent of the district's vote in 2008, GOP Sen. Scott Brown took 60 percent here in January's special election - a remarkable showing in a district home to the Kennedy compound.

Delahunt's decision to leave doesn't make this district a lost cause for Democrats by any means, but credible Republicans including former state Treasurer Joe Malone and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry are likely to run, and no Democrat appears capable of clearing a primary field. In a normal year, Democrats would enjoy a considerable advantage in an open seat race in MA-10. But this year, Democrats' initial advantage isn't great enough to warrant rating this race more favorably than a Toss Up.
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March 14, 2010
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