May 15, 2008
· House Editor David Wasserman examines the outlook in the House following the special election outcome in Mississippi's 1st CD. The Cook Political Report now estimates that Democrats will gain between 10 and 20 seats in the House. Read more here.
· House Ratings Changes:
MS-01- Travis Childers- Republican Toss Up to Democratic Toss Up
WV-02- Shelley Moore Capito- Solid Republican to Likely Republican
· House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest House Rundowns for Utah and Vermont.
· Don't miss the latest Senate and Governors poll charts.
· Check out the latest House, Senate, and Governors At-A-Glances.
May 13, 2008
Upset Republicans
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 10, 2008
This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 10, 2008.
Recent special elections for House seats in Illinois and Louisiana that were once reliably Republican sent the GOP an unmistakable signal that the party's 25-year-old playbook is obsolete: Simply spouting an undiluted conservative message doesn't consistently work anymore, even in some of the nation's reddest districts. And a potential loss in a special election in Mississippi later this month could underscore that message.
The upset in Louisiana's 6th Congressional District, where President Bush won 59 percent of the vote in 2004, should jolt the GOP. Similarly, losing the Illinois seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican, whose 14th District went to Bush by 55 percent, should be a wake-up call.
An important thing to remember, though, is that when a political party is experiencing bad times, it doesn't catch many breaks. When a party is riding high in the polls and has a popular president, its flawed or inferior candidates can win in favorable or even neutral districts. But when times are bad, a party can field superior, unblemished candidates and still lose in neutral or unfavorable districts. And in hard times, a party may need stellar candidates to win even in favorable districts.
To be sure, in both Louisiana's 6th District and Illinois's 14th, Republicans nominated weak candidates. What's more, they were unadorned Reagan revolutionaries at a time when the Reagan revolution has been relegated to the history books.
For GOP candidates to run anywhere--even in the Deep South--as if we were still in the mid-1980s makes no more sense than if a Democrat tried to run today as a clone of Franklin Roosevelt.
Based on conversations in the 23 states that I have visited since the beginning of this year, many Republicans are horribly embarrassed by their party's positions and actions on fiscal policy, foreign policy, and social policy. Furthermore, many Republicans feel that their party has lost its ethical compass.
Few rank-and-file members can defend the fact that the Bush administration turned the balanced budget created during a Democratic administration into a sea of red ink. Republicans in control of both the executive and legislative branches elevated tax-cutting to near-sacred significance while turning a blind eye to out-of-control spending, a set of priorities that made no sense.
Scandals at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, meanwhile, sullied the GOP's image. And although most Republicans originally supported the president's decision to go to war in Iraq, many more now question the strategies and tactics, and bemoan that the U.S. went in with too few forces and no occupation plan. Party members also acknowledge that the United States has squandered the global respect and goodwill that arose from the 9/11 tragedy. Finally, they voice disappointment with the GOP's emphasis on social, cultural, and religious issues, pointing especially to the controversies over the Terri Schiavo case and over embryonic-stem-cell research.
Although former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan is hardly representative of any group other than perhaps the brightest economists in the world, when he noted in his book that he sometimes doesn't recognize his own party, he could have been speaking for millions of fellow Republicans.
Some Republicans argue that Sen. John McCain might be just the medicine to turn the GOP "back to the future," even though he will be 72 in August. They hope that he can revive the party of Dwight Eisenhower, Robert Taft, Richard Nixon, and Gerald Ford, a party that struck a more careful balance between defense, fiscal policy, and cultural issues. In some ways that old Republican Party would be better suited to today's world and to the future than the one we've seen over the past quarter-century.
Other Republicans forlornly suggest that before the GOP can really retool itself and rise phoenix-like from the ashes, it must first burn to the ground. It might even take more-sweeping electoral losses this year than in 2006 for the party to hit bottom, they argue. Only then, they say, could the Republican Party abandon its illusions and offer a more attractive vision for the future.
May 9, 2008
The Specials
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 6, 2008
This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on May 6, 2008.
It is very easy, often tempting, to over-interpret the meaning of a special congressional election. Many read great importance into the results of a single congressional district and try to extrapolate that meaning to 434 other districts for the next election.
The truth is that there are often unique or local circumstances that play an important role in determining the outcome of the election. They don't call these contests "special" for nothing.
But it is also tempting, if one is on the losing side of a special election, to rationalize the outcome, to focus exclusively on the unusual circumstances and deny larger truths that emerge from that or from a pattern of special elections.
Take this past Saturday's special election in Louisiana's 6th District to replace Rep. Richard Baker, a Republican who resigned to take the top job with the Managed Funds Association.
There are plenty of unique circumstances behind the victory of Democratic Rep.-elect Don Cazayoux (Pronunciation hint: Think of a cashew but substitute zhew for shoe) in a district that President Bush carried with 55 and 59 percent in 2000 and 2004, respectively.
Republicans got saddled with a candidate who, to a certain extent, was the Pelican State's answer to Florida's former Rep. Katherine Harris.
Just as Harris couldn't lose a statewide primary and couldn't win a statewide general election, longtime conservative activist and former state legislator Woody Jenkins was very difficult to beat in a closed GOP primary but entered into a general election with a walk-in closet of political and personal baggage.
Jenkins came in on the short side of the 49-46 percent race, but a weekend in Baton Rouge last month convinced me that few thought Woody would win even then, though few thought he would lose badly either -- the district is too Republican for that.
A generic Republican would have outperformed Woody.
Similarly, the GOP loss in March of Illinois' 14th District -- formerly held by Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and which President Bush won with 54 percent in 2000, 55 percent in 2004 -- also featured another statewide loser of a Republican nominee, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis.
Oberweis brought his own complete set of Samsonite into the race, Democrats dubbed him "the Milk Dud," and the voters went with now-Rep. Bill Foster, D-Ill.
In both of these cases, again, there were unique circumstances: tough GOP primaries produced weak, ideological candidates.
Had Republicans been able to nominate better candidates in each case, they might have held onto the seats. To their credit, the National Republican Congressional Committee folks understood from the beginning that they faced significant challenges in both districts.
Another special election is coming up May 13 for the 1st District seat in Mississippi previously held by Republican Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the Senate. Democrat Travis Childers, a Chancery Court Clerk for Prentiss County, ran ahead of Republican Greg Davis, the Mayor of Southhaven, in the first round of balloting but failed to obtain the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff.
It is important to note that under Mississippi special election law, this was a nonpartisan election, and their parties were not on the ballot.
That Childers, the Democrat, ran ahead of Davis, the Republican, was viewed with considerable interest elsewhere. Was this another sign of how weak the Republican Party had gotten -- that even a Mississippi district Bush had won with 59 and 62 percent in 2000 and 2004, respectively, could go Democrat?
As is often the case, there are unusual circumstances besides the nonpartisan nature of the election in this district. Davis is from the section of the district comprised pretty much of Memphis, Tenn., suburbs. Childers is from the non-Memphis, or one might say anti-Memphis, part of the district. This situation has a lot more to do with geography than partisan politics.
But at the same time, both districts were and are heavily Republican. If Bush were more popular, if the Republican brand were not as dented and tarnished as it is today, Republicans would likely have won both, even with badly flawed candidates.
Much is being made of the fact that Republicans aired advertising tying the Democratic candidates in Louisiana and Mississippi to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill, and his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, despite the fact that there is no evidence that either Democrat ever met Obama or Wright.
Republicans are arguing that the ads took what would have been a Democratic runaway election and turned it close. Democrats are arguing that the ads didn't work. I never saw any polls showing a Cazayoux landslide. Indeed, the polls in the closing weeks were fairly close to the actual election result.
The thing to remember is that when times for a party are bad, they don't tend to get many breaks. When times are good, they do.
When a party is riding high in the polls, has a popular president, it can nominate flawed or inferior candidates and still win in favorable and often, even in neutral districts.
But when times are bad, they can even lose with superior and unblemished candidates in neutral or bad districts and have considerably lower chances of prevailing in good districts when their candidates are not up to snuff.
May 8, 2008
· House Editor David Wasserman foresees a photo finish in the MS-01 special election scheduled for Tuesday: If it is true that “time heals all wounds,” Republicans would not be panicking over next week’s north Mississippi special election. Yet, two weeks after Greg Davis (R) finished in second behind Travis Childers (D) in the initial round of balloting, private polls suggest that the needle has not moved and that the party’s chances of holding the seat in the runoff are 50/50 at best. Click here to read more.
· House Ratings Changes:
AK-AL Young Lean Republican to Toss Up
CA-11 McNerney Lean Democratic to Toss Up
CT-02 Courtney Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-24 Feeney Likely Republican to Lean Republican
KS-02 Boyda Lean Democratic to Toss Up
KY-03 Yarmuth Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic
IN-02 Donnelly Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IN-07 Carson Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
MI-07 Walberg Lean Republican to Toss Up
MI-09 Knollenberg Likely Republican to Lean Republican
MO-06 Graves Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-13 Fossella Likely Republican to Toss Up
NC-11 Shuler Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
OH-02 Schmidt Lean Republican to Likely Republican
OH-14 LaTourette Likely Republican to Solid Republican
· SENATE: The 1st quarter Senate FEC chart is now available here.
· Check out the latest House, Senate and Governors At-A-Glances.
May 6, 2008
The Rev. Kamikaze
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 3, 2008
This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 3, 2008.
With just nine contests remaining, the Democratic presidential nom-ination race is getting even more interesting. Just days ago, it seemed that the only way that Barack Obama could fail to clinch his party's nod would be to leave his wife and move in with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
May 2, 2008
The New New Math
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
April 29, 2008
This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on April 29, 2008.
Despite the recent show of strength by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., the odds against her winning the Democratic presidential nomination are as imposing as ever — and probably worse.
May 1, 2008
· NC GOV: Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy looks at the North Carolina gubernatorial primaries: The national media may be fixated on Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary in North Carolina, but there are other contests on the ballot of equal importance to voters. One is the open-seat race for Governor where both parties are hosting contested primaries to select nominees to face off in the general election. Read more here.
· House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest House Rundowns for Tennessee and Texas.
· Check out the latest House and Senate At-A-Glances.
April 29, 2008
Hillary's Political Purgatory
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
April 26, 2008
This column was originally featured in National Journal on April 26, 2008.
The good news for Hillary Rodham Clinton is that she’s winning a lot of battles. The bad news is that the war is pretty much lost. Sure, she won Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary by a strong 9 points in the face of being outspent on television ads by Barack Obama 2-to-1. She also won Ohio, Rhode Island, and at least the primary part of the bizarre “Texas two-step” primary-and-caucus combination on March 4. But today, she is 133 delegates behind Obama, 1,728 to 1,595, according to NBC News. At this point last week, she trailed by 136 delegates. Since then Clinton has scored a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, according to NBC, but has lost a few more superdelegates, so she has made little headway.
April 25, 2008
· Take a look at our updated Electoral College outlook for 2008.
Keystone Candidates
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
April 22, 2008
This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on April 22, 2008.
It’s no wonder supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., are wandering around and repeating over and over again, “why didn’t all this happen sooner?”
What is happening now is precisely what they needed to happen to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
April 24, 2008
· Take a look at the breakdown in delegates between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, including our charts created in collaboration with NBC.
· House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest estimated pledged delegate count.
· House Editor David Wasserman explains what the GOP’s near miss in a heavily Republican district in northern Mississippi means for the party’s prospects of holding on to the seat in the May 13th runoff, and takes a look at what Pennsylvania primary results mean for races in November. Read his analysis here.
· Check out the latest House, Senate and Governors At-A-Glances.
April 23, 2008
The Chemistry Experiment
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
April 19, 2008
This column was originally featured in National Journal on April 19, 2008.
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s address to an AFL-CIO group on Wednesday morning could easily have been mistaken for the speech of someone who would soon be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. Clinton was warmly received by the standing-room-only, mostly middle-aged, predominantly male crowd. She said all the right things in all the right ways. She projected the confidence of a winner taking a victory lap to see yet another of the party’s key constituencies.
April 22, 2008
· Check out the latest results of the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll conducted April 17-20, 2008. In the head-to-head matchups, Obama leads McCain 45 percent to 44 percent while McCain and Clinton are tied, 45 percent to 45 percent.
Also, don't miss the combined April 17-20 and March 6-9 polls. In the combined poll, McCain leads both Obama and Clinton by one percent, 45 percent to 44 percent against Obama and 46 percent to 45 percent against Clinton.
The topline and crosstabs are available here.
April 17, 2008
· House Editor David Wasserman examines the latest fundraising numbers from the first quarter of 2008 and offers several quick observations:
Recruitment studs or fundraising duds?: The louder the buzz, the higher the expectations. Plenty of this quarter’s entrants into congressional races posted impressive totals for the weeks and months they had to raise money. But some of the parties’ most highly touted recruits, like Bobby Bright (D-AL-02) and Lou Barletta (R-PA-11) underperformed, banking $46,484 and $154,470 respectively. Their next reports, which will reflect their first full quarter of fundraising, should tell us how serious these candidates are about building on their existing favorability and reaching for the crossover votes they will need to win.
New kids on the block: Businessman Keith Fimian (R-VA-11), tax attorney Bob Lord (D-AZ-03), and renewable energy executive Michael Skelly (D-TX-07) are far from household names in the districts they seek to represent, and prevailing political winds in their districts add varying degrees of difficulty to their challenges. Nonetheless, they have emerged as a few of the most prolific fundraisers in their parties. Just how far their campaign accounts will take them depends on their own ability to define themselves and the weaknesses of their opposition in the months to come.
Deficit incumbents: A handful of Republican incumbents posted less in cash on hand than their challengers at the end of the quarter. These are the kinds of members who turn headaches at NRCC Independent Expenditure headquarters into migraines. But for some, this is a more serious sign of danger than for others. An incumbent facing a cash deficit who has not yet been through a highly charged, attack-filled general election, such as Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-07), is more likely to be at risk than one who has had the kitchen sink thrown at him and survived, such as Reps. Randy Kuhl (R-NY-29) or Bill Sali (R-ID-01).
With all first quarter FEC reports now in, be sure to check our latest updates to the 2008 Potentially Vulnerable Incumbents Chart, which plots “risk factors” for incumbents seeking reelection this year. Find the chart here.
· Check out the latest changes to the House At-A-Glance.
