House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at the congressional races that have yet to be called by the Associated Press. While we know the identities of 430 members of the 111th Congress convening in January, five seats still hang in the balance. Their outcomes will determine whether Democrats gain 21, 22, 23, or 24 House seats this year.
No American political process brings out politicians’ Machiavellian tendencies quite like redistricting does after each census. The decennial blood sport can summon the most partisan instincts of state legislators, GIS-knowledgeable operatives, and their legions of election attorneys. Read on
If two years ago we had told House Democrats they would pick up something in the neighborhood of 20 to 24 seats in yesterday’s elections, they wouldn’t have been able to contain themselves. But if we had told them the same thing two days ago, they might have privately accused us of malpractice in punditry. Read on
Private tracking over the weekend suggests that several endangered GOP incumbents have consolidated base support in the last several days of the campaign. But for most, it's too late. The most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of between 24 and 30 seats, and we cannot rule out a scenario in which gains would climb higher. Read on
Despite an intense focus on how many House seats Republicans stand to lose in five days, the size of the Democratic majority in the House may not ultimately be as significant as its complexion. After all, given the number of conservative southern Democrats in the House in the 1970s, did President Jimmy Carter have a real majority to work with? Read on
At a time when Democrats enjoy a wide lead in money and overwhelming atmospheric advantages, Republican tactical miscalculations weigh much more heavily than those made by Democrats. With one week left until the general election, GOP problems continue to stack up. House Editor David Wasserman releases ratings changes in ten districts. Read on
House Editor David Wasserman releases ratings changes in an additional 12 districts. The GOP internal “death list” memo, leaked to U.S. News and World Report’s Paul Bedard, exposes just how white-knuckled some in the Republican conference are. Read on
For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker. Movement in Congressional races tends to accelerate in mid-October, and with the exception of Rep. Tim Mahoney’s district (FL-16), every district on the move is headed in Democrats’ direction. Read on
House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at what could happen in the House in the unlikely event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain. Even though House Democrats are near certain to expand their existing 236-199 majority and currently enjoy a 27-21 lead in state delegation majorities, proceedings still may not be so straightforward. Read on
