Latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠) Released: Electoral Map Favors Republicans, Number Of “Swing Seats” Drops Again
The 25th Anniversary edition release reveals a House that is less "elastic" than ever as voters "split their tickets" with less frequency.
Washington, DC (July 13, 2022) - Celebrating its 25th anniversary edition, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter today announced the release of the latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠).
The 2022 edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index depicts an electoral map that remains slightly but powerfully skewed in Republicans’ favor: the median Senate seat is R+3 (three points to the right of the nation as a whole) and the median Electoral College vote is R+2.
After redistricting, the median House district is R+1, a minor difference compared to the median score reported in the 2021 Cook PVI℠. Even so, there are fewer competitive House districts than before: the number of “swing seats” (R+5 to D+5) has fallen from 90 seats to 82, and the number of “hyper-competitive seats” (R+3 to D+3) has fallen from 51 seats to 45, an historic low. And, more GOP-held than Democratic seats became “safe” through the redistricting process.
Beginning this decade, The Cook Political Report is updating the formula used to calculate PVI values from a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election.
“Since we first launched the Cook PVI, there’s been a dramatic increase in “straight-ticket” presidential and congressional voting, rendering recent election results more predictive and “ancestral” partisan performance of less — but still some — value. In short, the Cook PVI is adapting to new political realities,” says David Wasserman, Senior Editor of the U.S. House of Representatives for The Cook Political Report and author of the 2022 Cook PVI report.
First introduced in 1997 by Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook, with the help of Clark Benson and Polidata, Inc, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Not to be confused with its race ratings, which reflect The Cook Political Report’s outlook for which party will win the next election in each state and district, the Cook PVI values take a longer view, and seek to measure and describe the underlying partisanship of each district relative to the nation as a whole.
“It’s hard to overstate just how influential Charlie Cook has been in shaping the way we evaluate campaigns and elections ” says Amy Walter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Cook Political Report. “The Cook Partisan Voting Index–much like his metric of rating a campaign as solid, lean, likely or toss up–has become an integral feature of the collective vernacular in political journalism.”
“Helping to continue that spirit of innovation is David Wasserman, Senior Editor, U.S. House of Representatives, who has been lead analyst for the Cook PVI for the last fifteen years. Dave’s stewardship will help ensure that the Cook PVI continues to be an invaluable and unrivaled tool for understanding and evaluating changes in voting patterns at the state and congressional district level.”
About The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is legendary among Washington insiders, corporate leaders, and political enthusiasts as a “gold standard” source for its handicapping of congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections. With the re-branding of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter in August 2021, the CPR team, featuring Amy Walter, David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor and founder Charlie Cook, continues to adapt its offerings to support the needs of politically-minded readers who consistently turn to Cook Political Report analysis to get the expert’s need-to-know perspective. The Cook Political Report’s weekly newsletters are complemented by its digital hub, which includes its incomparable race ratings; “at-a-glance” race pages; and, the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠), the pioneering tool first introduced in 1997, measuring how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole.
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