This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 31, 2016 The newspapers, airwaves, and Internet are alive with predictions that the political tide has turned against Donald Trump and that he may end up a loser in Cleveland. I continue to believe that Trump will not be the Republican nominee, but it obviously is a close call. If he falls only a couple dozen delegates short of the required 1,237, he likely will be awarded the Republican crown. My bet is that there will be enough delegates committed to other candidates or unbound to keep the real-estate mogul well short of the magic number. Both public and private polling in Wisconsin going into Tuesday’s key primary show Ted Cruz with a double-digit lead over Trump, with John Kasich well behind. The big question is whether Cruz can capture enough congressional districts with their winner-take-all delegate allocations to slow Trump’s pace. The New Yorker has captured 758 or 48 percent of the delegates chosen so far, even though he has won only 37.1 percent of the votes in primaries and
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