2004 Races for Congress, Governor Start Slowly

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

April 5, 2003

This column was originally featured on National Journal on April 5, 2003.

As the nine Democratic presidential contenders do their impersonations of whirling dervishes, a confluence of four factors appears to be freezing much of the political activity that would normally be taking place on the House, Senate, and even gubernatorial campaign levels. The long-term consequences of the freeze are far from clear. But it is already creating anxiety, slowing candidate recruitment for Senate and gubernatorial races (House recruiting starts in earnest much later), delaying incumbents' decisions about whether to retire, slowing fundraising, and generally putting a damper on other campaign activities.

The war is the first and most obvious factor causing the freeze. Overt campaigning by congressional and 2004 gubernatorial candidates would look unseemly as American forces do battle in the Middle East. Besides, voters are so preoccupied with the war that they would probably pay little attention to a campaign anyway. For potential candidates who haven't decided whether to run, the war is a convenient excuse for delaying announcements. And if a candidate does jump into a race, fundraising is a struggle because the war and a lousy economy make great rationales for holding back on contributing money or hosting fundraisers.

For Democrats and Republicans alike, not knowing how the war will progress adds extra uncertainty to political calculations. About 10 days ago, some Republicans were contending that Democratic opposition to the war would be a huge obstacle for Democratic candidates next year. Now, one hears much less of that GOP prediction. In fact, it is possible to envision the war turning into a liability for Republicans. Or the war could well play an insignificant role in the 2004 elections. The economy or health care could just as easily dominate the political dialogue a year from now.

The second factor freezing normal campaign activity is the economy. Will it be the big issue in this election cycle? And if so, will it hurt Republicans enough to endanger their majority in the Senate-or even their majority in the House? Normally, weak economies translate into losses for the president's party. But as the 2002 midterm results showed, that is not always the case. Nevertheless, any non-incumbent Republican contemplating a run for Congress or governor needs to consider that an ailing economy could make 2004 a bad year for the GOP.

The third factor is the uncertainty raised by the new campaign finance law. For Republicans, that uncertainty is about what the statute really requires and how much it will hamper their party's House and Senate campaign committees. A preliminary court decision on the constitutionality of several aspects of the law was expected by now. But it's looking doubtful that the case will reach the Supreme Court in time for it to clarify the rules of the game before 2004 fundraising is well under way.

Many campaign professionals think that the new law, or at least the parts most likely to survive the court challenge, will turn back the clock, making good candidates and their campaigns more self-reliant and bad ones less able to be helped by their party. As one Republican pollster aptly puts it, "The [party] committees won't be able to go in at the last minute to save the idiots" who, left to their own devices, will lose. Party professionals on both sides can come up with lists of lawmakers who would have lost had their party had not come to their rescue.

For Democrats, the uncertainty caused by the new finance law is far more serious. They face the real possibility that this law will put their party at a serious financial disadvantage, because they have been considerably more addicted than Republicans to soft money.

The fourth freeze factor applies only to Democrats. It's the lingering hangover from their poor showing on November 5. Just as generals too often fight the last war, politicians too often try to refight the last campaign-even if circumstances have changed. Congressional Democrats cried in their beer from Election Day to the end of January, hardly showing the determination to go on the offensive. If large numbers of Democrats come to believe that their party simply cannot take back the House or even the Senate, their party's candidate recruitment and fundraising will obviously suffer.

Both parties need to realize that the current freeze won't last until Election Day 2004. The first to thaw will gain a real advantage.