How Much Will Bush Muscle Into Senate Races?

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

March 8, 2003

This column was originally featured on National Journal on March 8, 2003.

Getting deeply involved in recruiting Senate candidates and campaigning for them was a bet that paid off handsomely for President Bush and his political advisers in 2002. But as the new election cycle gets under way, the White House is faced with some political situations that are considerably more complicated, particularly in the Senate primaries. What's more, White House operatives are beginning to put together the president's own re-election campaign, and Bush can ill afford disharmony within GOP ranks.

The White House has already marched into a potentially thorny thicket in Pennsylvania, where conservative Rep. Patrick J. Toomey is challenging moderate Republican Sen. Arlen Specter. The incumbent has not hesitated to break with Bush and has a reputation for being "high maintenance."

Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in three consecutive presidential elections. And Democrats captured the governorship last November. Yet Specter easily won a fourth term in 1998. So, it wasn't surprising that the White House and the National Republican Senatorial Committee immediately sprang to his defense when Toomey jumped into the race. For the NRSC, the decision was a no-brainer, because congressional campaign committees focus on protecting their own incumbents. For the White House, the situation is a bit more difficult. GOP conservatives have never been particularly fond of Specter, and the anti-tax Club for Growth is aggressively promoting Toomey's candidacy. What remains to be seen is whether the White House will try to muscle Republican donors to either back Specter or stay neutral.

Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Zell Miller's announcement that he will retire would seem to open a seat that is Georgia Republicans' for the asking. Indeed, Democrats have yet to come up with a credible contender. On the Republican side, moderate Rep. Johnny Isakson may well face a conservative competitor in his primary. GOP strategist Tom Perdue, one of the architects of Georgian Saxby Chambliss's surprising Senate victory in November, seems intent on keeping Isakson from capturing Miller's seat. Isakson has run statewide twice, losing a 1996 Senate primary to millionaire businessman Guy Millner, who was more conservative, and the 1990 gubernatorial election to Miller. Will the Bush team step in to prevent internecine strife that could provide Democrats with an opening?

The White House might also be pressured to intervene in the Senate races in Alaska, Arizona, Florida, and South Carolina. In Alaska, newly appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski compiled a fairly moderate voting record while in the Alaska House and is widely considered to be moderately in favor of abortion rights, prompting speculation that she could face an aggressive conservative challenge in her primary. Democratic chances of taking the seat largely depend on whether former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles runs. Without Knowles, Democrats would have difficulty ousting even an appointed senator. But a messy GOP primary would make Murkowski weaker.

In Arizona, Rep. Jeff Flake is considering a primary challenge to Sen. John McCain. Flake would run to McCain's right. There's no denying that McCain is in a strong position-with approval ratings said to be above 70 percent. It's hard to argue that supporting a primary challenge to McCain simply because of ideology would be anything but a fool's errand, even though the White House and McCain are on less than terrific terms.

The Republican Party may get an excellent shot at seizing two Democratic Senate seats, if incumbents in Florida and South Carolina opt not to seek re-election. If Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., decides to run solely for the White House, Rep. Mark Foley and former Rep. Bill McCollum could face each other in the GOP primary. Given that the president needs to carry Florida in 2004, it might make sense for the White House to get behind one candidate or the other. The same is true in South Carolina, where Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings could retire. Republicans eyeing that seat include Rep. Jim DeMint and former state Attorney General Charlie Condon. Both have good relations with the White House, and as one Republican strategist put it, "We don't want to step on our friends."

Yet over the next two years, the president may need-for the good of his party-to step on a friend or two.