New Blood

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.

January 7, 2003

This column was originally featured on CongressDaily/AM on January 7, 2003.

By its very nature and rules, Congress undergoes certain changes every two years at this point. But in some respects, given the relatively small number of retirees and incumbents losing re-election, fewer changes than normal are taking place as legislators and staff return to Capitol Hill this week. While veteran lawmakers like Republican Sens. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina and Jesse Helms of North Carolina have departed, relatively few shifts are taking place in the membership of Congress -- particularly considering this was the first election after a decennial redistricting, normally resulting in substantial turnover.

However, a phenomenal degree of turnover has occurred in top congressional leadership positions. Defining "top congressional leadership" as the nine members in the posts of speaker, Senate or House Democratic or Republican leaders or whips, only three -- House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid -- had those jobs two years ago. Only one other leader, incoming House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, had one of the top nine jobs two years ago, when he was majority whip. Admittedly you cannot push the "new-to-leadership" theme too far. After all, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer is certainly not new to leadership positions, and others also have served in lower-level leadership posts.

Still, an amazing degree of turnover has taken place. Noting the new changes and keeping in mind the turnover when Republicans took over the House in 1995, the, Gingrich-to-Livingston-to-Hastert speakership turnover in December 1998 and others since, Rutgers University's Ross Baker -- one of the political science world's most astute Congress watchers -- argues that "contrary to the popular perception," in a short period the House "has flushed out the old blood and infused some new blood." The same aura of change is almost as clear in the Senate. But this change signifies more than the obvious mechanics of who does or does not have leadership experience or potential, or who knows or can quickly pick up parliamentary procedure. It is also about chemistry and relationships. For example, some Democrats theorize that one reason their party did not effectively articulate a message during the 2002 campaign was that Daschle and then-House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and their respective operations did not have a particularly close working relationship. The two never arrived at a common approach for the party to take.

The new Republican Senate combination of Majority Leader Bill Frist and Majority Whip Mitch McConnell has the potential to be one of the most effective tandems Capitol Hill has ever seen. The intellectually high-wattage Frist could project his moderate, reassuring image together with McConnell, certainly one of the shrewdest political strategists and tacticians Capitol Hill has seen in some time. That is, if the personal chemistry between the two works. It is also somewhat remarkable to have the two most recent Republican Senate campaign committee chairmen in the No. 1 and No. 2 leadership slots. This ensures preservation of their scant 51-49 majority will get the necessary attention as they seek to hold or expand it in 2004.

Conversely, should the highly regarded Daschle step down early to run for president, a vacuum (and at least some degree of struggle) to replace him would ensue, with Reid the early favorite. Or Daschle could retire, making him a lame duck. Either way, there is uncertainty at the top for Senate Democrats.

For House Democrats, the jury is still out on newly minted Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Many felt she erred by not choosing veteran former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Martin Frost of Texas to reprise that role this cycle. Her selection of fellow Californian Rep. Robert Matsui raised eyebrows and pleasantly surprised many. Pelosi's new economic plan, released Monday, got strong early reviews, but some say the real test will be filling the half-dozen "exclusive committee" openings, balancing the various ethnic, geographic and ideological interests in the Democratic Caucus.

It will take time to see how all this plays out, but in the short term do not bet against the White House. As William (Billy) Moore, current managing director of Austin-based Public Strategies' Washington office and a veteran of more than two decades as a congressional staffer, puts it, "President Bush has extraordinary power for setting the agenda (on Capitol Hill) now," far more than he had before Sept. 11, 2001, or any time since.