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Connecticut | Senate
Incumbent
Sen. Chris Dodd
OPEN: Dodd is Retiring
Party: Democrat
Last Incumbent Percentage: 66%
Democrats
Richard Blumenthal, AG (1)
Independents/Other Parties
John Mertens, engineering prof., party chair (CT for Lieberman Party) (1)
Republicans
Linda McMahon, WWE CEO, st. Bd. of Ed member (1)
Connecticut Senate: The Race Heats Up
August 19, 2010
The inevitable contest between Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, the Republican nominee, has seemed a long time in coming.
Blumenthal cleared the Democratic primary field as soon as he got in the race. While McMahon has been running since last year, she faced a contested primary from former Rep. Rob Simmons and financial adviser Peter Schiff. Although McMahon won the endorsement at the state party convention in late May, Simmons got enough support to earn a place on the ballot. Schiff was eliminated, but gathered petitions to secure a ballot spot. Simmons then “suspended” his campaign, saying that he wouldn’t campaign and would release his staff, but would allow his name to stay on the ballot.
Schiff did not run a very good campaign. He seemed to believe that he could win with support of the Tea Party, but the movement doesn’t have a significant presence in the state. He lacked an organization and a message, and his fundraising was weak. Simmons generally stayed on the sidelines until about three weeks before the primary when he announced he would start to move around the state, talking to voters. He also began airing what he called public service announcements (a.k.a., campaign ads). In hindsight, this appears to have been Simmons’ strategy: disappear for six weeks and avoid media scrutiny and attacks from McMahon, then jump back into the race at the last minute and attempt to sprint across the finish line.
It seems that Simmons failed to take into account that McMahon would not let up on her own television advertising or her efforts to build a grassroots organization. While Simmons did reap numerous newspaper endorsements, voters seemed unimpressed by his candidacy. Ultimately McMahon won the nomination with 49 percent to 28 percent for Simmons and 23 percent for Schiff.
Blumenthal seemed to take a hiatus of his own. After allegations that he had misrepresented his military service, Blumenthal became much less visible on the campaign trail. He didn’t stop laying the groundwork for the general election; he simply stepped out of the glare of the media that wasn’t quite finished with the military record story. In essence, Blumenthal did what he could to turn the page. He did, though, spend his time raising money. As of June 30, he had raised $3.5 million for the cycle and had just over $2.1 million in the bank after airing some television ads in June. McMahon by contrast had spent nearly $19 million, almost of all of it from her own pocket. McMahon is not raising money, but accepts contributions of $100 or less and only through her web site. She has indicated that she will spend as much as $50 million on the race.
McMahon is running as an outsider who won’t be beholden to special interests. She believes that the Senate needs a business person who has created jobs to help get the nation’s fiscal house in order. She focuses extensively on her success in building WWE into an international entertainment empire and on the problems in Washington. More recently, she has taken aim at Blumenthal, portraying him as a career politician who will say anything to win and who tells voters one thing and then does another. McMahon and Republicans often bring up what they call Blumenthal’s “misspeaks,” referencing his military record and his claim that he never took money from political action committees or special interests. While that was true in his races for Attorney General, he is taking PAC money in the Senate race; he has raised a total of $483,000 from PACs as of June 30.
Republicans are also likely to take aim at Blumenthal’s record as Attorney General, a post he has held for nearly 20 years. He has never had a difficult race and thus his record has never come under much scrutiny. Republican strategists contend that Blumenthal is quick to bring lawsuits against corporations and individuals that often don’t go to trial, or produce verdicts or settlements when they did. Whether there is enough evidence of this to make a compelling case remains to be seen.
Blumenthal’s response to these charges is his oft-repeated mantra that "People in Connecticut know me, and they know my record. And they know I am going to be fighting for them, no matter who donates to my campaign, no matter how much the money is. They know my actions over 20 years speak louder than words."
In an effort to tell his story and to prevent McMahon from gaining real traction before the primary, Blumenthal aired a series of television ads in June that featured average citizens talking about how the Attorney General came to their aid. In one spot, a couple discusses the help they got from Blumenthal.
GARY: “When they initially told me I had the leukemia, they told me I only had thirty days to live.”
GAYLE: “Here he is sick in the hospital with the insurance carrier wanting to send us to Washington State. Richard Blumenthal stepped in and fought the insurance company. We're living proof that he was there and he made a difference in our lives.”
GARY: “I think he really cares about what happens to people.”
GAYLE: “Richard Blumenthal, for us, worked a miracle.”
Another aspect of Blumenthal’s strategy is to counter McMahon’s credentials as an outsider by running against Washington. In his first ad of the general election contest, Blumenthal says, “As I look at Washington DC, I don't see a lot of people standing up for the people against the special interests. That is what I have done taking on the pharmaceutical drug companies when they over charged us; the utilities when they raised rates; big tobacco when it addicted our children. The people of Connecticut know me and one thing they know about me for sure is that I will fight for them no matter how big or powerful the foe. I will stand up for them.”
There are several other statewide elected officials or House members who are also running against Washington in an effort to pick up the outsider’s mantle. The question is whether voters will put aside their long political resumes and see them as outsiders. In truth, these candidates probably don’t have much choice given the political environment and voters’ palpable anger and frustration.
Democrats believe that McMahon is a deeply flawed candidate, primarily because of professional wrestling. Democratic operatives and her primary opponents have worked to portray McMahon as a peddler of gratuitous violence to children, and a promoter of the degradation of women, who turns a blind eye to the use of illegal steroids by wrestlers and fails to provide wrestlers with basic health care coverage and other benefits. They have hammered this message nearly every day for months and have found support among editorial writers and columnists. They have also bolstered their efforts with the creation of MOM, Mothers Opposing McMahon, a group dedicated to reminding voters of the evils of wrestling. Events have also intervened to keep the charges in the news. Last week, a 29-year old former wrestler died of an apparent heart attack, allegedly from having used steroids and pain killers. And, just days before the primary Vince McMahon, Linda’s husband, gave an interview to the Associated Press in which he defended WWE and complained about the way the media was treating the company. The constant drumbeat against wrestling has had some of its desired effect since McMahon’s unfavorable ratings have climbed to 37 percent in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll.
McMahon has worked to counter the arguments against wrestling. She has not shied away from answering the media’s questions about it, and even says the topic is fair game. She has also aired several television ads that seek to explain and defend it, while continuing to focus on the need for change. In one spot, McMahon says, “Before I decided to run for the Senate, I had a regular job (WWE clip). Okay, maybe not a regular job. I was the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment. A soap opera that entertains millions every week, and everyone gets in on the action. That isn't real, but our problems are. Connecticut families are hurting. We're losing jobs because Washington politicians are spending money we don't have. Last year, Connecticut was 47th in job creation. We can do better, we've got to do better. It's time we rein in runaway Washington spending, pass a balanced budget amendment to control that spending long term, and then stop the income tax increases scheduled for the end of this year. We can't stop the spending and fix the mess if we send another big government politician to Washington. It's time to shake things up, it's time for something different.”
This week, McMahon’s television ads have started to focus on Blumenthal. A new spot features clips of Blumenthal in an effort to use his own words against him. According to the script, an announcer says, “Dick Blumenthal says he’ll stand up to special interests.”
BLUMENTHAL: “I don’t see a lot of people standing up for the people against the special interests.”
ANNOUNCER: “Says he never took their money.”
BLUMENTHAL: “I’ve never taken PAC money and I have rejected all special interest money.”
ANNOUNCER: “Really? Since January, he’s taken a half a million dollars from PACs and special interests. How can he fight the special interests if they’re paying for his campaign?”
While McMahon’s message and outsider status pose a threat to Democrats’ ability to hold this seat in a very blue state, the real danger is her bank account. Connecticut, parts of which are covered by the New York media market, is a very expensive state. Today, Blumenthal does not appear to be on track to raise nearly what McMahon has already spent. As a result, Democrats are likely going to have to make up the difference, and given their finite resources, it may limit their ability to spend money in other states. It’s possible that an outside group could get involved on Blumenthal’s behalf, but there are no signs of that yet. Blumenthal is personally wealthy, but he has shown no interest in spending his own money on the race at this point. Ultimately, he may not have a choice, if Democrats can’t or aren’t willing to make a significant investment here.
McMahon’s heavy television advertising has slowly eroded the daunting advantage Blumenthal had when he got into the race. The first Quinnipiac University poll that included a Blumenthal-McMahon ballot test (January 8-12) had Blumenthal ahead of McMahon, 64 percent to 23 percent. The most recent Quinnipiac survey (July 28-August 2 of 1,299 registered voters) showed that the gap had narrowed to 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. In the most recent poll, Blumenthal’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 57 percent to 30 percent, while McMahon’s were 43 percent to 37 percent. According to the Pollster.com trend line of all general election polls taken in the race, Blumenthal has a similar 50-percent to 40-percent lead over McMahon.
We’re not quite ready to move this race into the Toss Up column, but we suspect that such a rating change will be warranted as the general election moves into high gear. The key for McMahon is to get within single digits of Blumenthal. It’s worth watching the polls here for the next several weeks.
Connecticut Senate: A Moving Target
June 1, 2010
In the wake of the May 19 New York Times story that raised questions about whether Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has misrepresented his military service record, we moved this race from the Lean Democratic column to the Toss Up column. Like many observers, we felt that the story might prove nearly fatal to Blumenthal’s Senate campaign. That belief was bolstered by the criticism Blumenthal faced when he held a press conference to push back on The New York Times story, but didn’t apologize though he eventually did. Three days after the controversy erupted, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon unexpectedly won the Republican Senate endorsement at the state party’s convention, increasing the likelihood that Blumenthal would face a well-funded opponent in November.
However, two polls have been released since May 19 to suggest that Blumenthal may have sustained just limited damage from the article, and have led us to rethink the rating in the race. A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll for the Blumenthal campaign (May 19-20 of 602 likely voters) showed Blumenthal leading McMahon, 55 percent to 40 percent.
A Quinnipiac University survey (May 24-25 of 1,159 registered voters) gave Blumenthal a 25-point advantage over McMahon, 56 percent to 31 percent. Blumenthal’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 61 percent to 29 percent, compared to 71 percent to 18 percent in a March Quinnipiac survey. His job rating was 76-percent approve to 16-percent disapprove and 60 percent said that he is honest and trustworthy. A majority of voters are well aware of the controversy surrounding Blumenthal’s military record, with 62 percent saying that they had heard a lot about the issue and 26 percent saying that they had heard about it some. While 43 percent said that they had a less favorable view of Blumenthal because of the controversy, 51 percent said that it made no difference. Further, 57 percent said that it was “not too important” or “not important at all” in considering how they would vote in November; 41 percent said it was “very important” or “somewhat important.” Finally, only 33 percent said that the controversy would make them less likely to vote for Blumenthal, while 61 percent said that it would make no difference.
As this graph from Pollster.com illustrates, Blumenthal has seen a gradual erosion in his support over the past couple of months, as McMahon’s support has increased. According to the Pollster.com trend line of all general election match-ups, Blumenthal is ahead of McMahon, 52 percent to 38 percent.
The Republican endorsement has made McMahon a clear frontrunner for the nomination, but she doesn’t get to claim victory quite yet. Former Rep. Rob Simmons, who lost the nomination to McMahon by 105 votes out of 1,413 cast, has suspended his campaign, but he is not exiting the race quietly; he has indicated that he will remain on the ballot. The conventional wisdom is that he wants to leave his options open in the event that McMahon stumbles or her candidacy is weakened by the forthcoming Democratic attacks on her. Simmons was also quoted last week saying that McMahon can’t win the general election. According to the recent Quinnipiac poll, McMahon’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 32 percent to 39 percent, the result of months of relentless criticism of professional wrestling from Simmons and some in the media. Still, McMahon’s willingness to put her own money into the race – totaling $16 million to date – and her ability to connect with voters means that she can’t be written off in either the primary or the general election, assuming she is the nominee.
Stockbroker Peter Schiff hopes to challenge McMahon for the GOP nomination. Although he has gotten some support from the Tea Party movement, Schiff managed to get just 44 votes at the state party convention, which wasn’t enough to earn him a spot on the primary ballot. Schiff must now petition on to the ballot. Signatures are due on June 8 and there is no guarantee that Schiff will be successful. If he does earn a primary spot, Schiff does have some personal resources to put into the race, but he can’t compete with McMahon’s personal wealth and would have to be considered the underdog in a primary contest.
While the controversy over whether Blumenthal has misrepresented his military service at times has not proved fatal, it has added some tarnish to his carefully cultivated image. In truth, Blumenthal started this race with stratospheric poll numbers that would be hard to maintain under any circumstances. The latest controversy, however, has served to bring Blumenthal a little closer to earth.
Still, the two most recent surveys indicate that the contest is not a Toss Up today and that Blumenthal has the advantage for the time being. As such, the race moves back to the Lean Democratic column. This is not to suggest that a Blumenthal-McMahon race won’t be competitive or that it won’t find its way back into the Toss Up column eventually; we suspect that it will. It is just not a single-digit race today.
Connecticut Senate: Blumenthal’s Misstatements about his Military Service Put Race in Toss Up
May 18, 2010
Democrats have long contended that they will easily hold the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Chris Dodd, but the events over the past 24 hours surrounding their presumptive nominee, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, put that assertion in doubt.
The New York Times reported this morning that Blumenthal has misrepresented his record of military service, suggesting at times that he served in Vietnam. He did not serve in Vietnam, but instead joined the Marine Corps Reserves after getting several deferments. However, there are numerous references in the media to Blumenthal referring to his service in Vietnam. There are also examples of Blumenthal saying that he didn’t serve, including during a debate in March.
Blumenthal is the strongest candidate that Democrats could have recruited to run for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd. He is arguably the most popular Democrat in the state. He is serving in his fourth term as Attorney General, and has never really had a tough race. In many ways, voters see Blumenthal as someone who is above politics. At the very least, he has long worn a coat of Teflon.
At a press conference this afternoon, numerous veterans joined Blumenthal to defend his military service. At least one said that she has never heard Blumenthal say he served in Vietnam. Blumenthal said that he chose to serve in the reserves, and that no special favors were used to secure a place in the reserve unit in Washington, DC in which he served. He added that he is proud of that service and the fact that his son currently serves in the reserves. He also highlighted what he’s done for veterans.
Blumenthal did admit that he has at times misspoken about his service “on a few occasions out of hundreds of events,” but said that he would not allow anyone to “impugn his record.” Blumenthal said that he was not aware that his “misplaced words” had appeared in print. Finally, he criticized the way The New York Times wrote about the issue, accusing the paper of denigrating service in the reserves and failing to write in depth about his six years of service.
Blumenthal promised to stay in the race and Democrats think that the campaign will move quickly beyond this incident. We are not so sure. There is now a very long and deep scratch in Blumenthal’s Teflon, and the tougher the Teflon, the more damaging the scratch. Voters are now likely to see Blumenthal as more of a typical politician than he’s ever been.
There are some political observers who don’t believe that Blumenthal can survive this incident. Whether that’s true will be determined over the next couple of days and will depend on whether the media uncovers more examples of Blumenthal misrepresenting his service, or if doubts are raised about what the Attorney General said this afternoon.
Our early guess is that Blumenthal does survive, but that he is no longer the heavy favorite he was just 24 hours ago, and Republicans will now play on a more level playing field. As such, the race is moving to the Toss Up column.
Connecticut Senate: Can McMahon Topple Blumenthal?
April 29, 2010
This was a very different race than it was just seven months ago when a number of Republicans were vying for their party’s nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, who by all measures looked as vulnerable as any incumbent up for re-election this year. Since then, Dodd announced he would not seek re-election and the GOP field winnowed. Perhaps the most significant difference, though, is the presence of a political newcomer who has become the frontrunner for the nomination.
Today, the Republican primary consists of that newcomer, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Rep. Rob Simmons and financial services executive Peter Schiff. The early conventional wisdom was that the nomination would come down to a race between Simmons and wealthy businessman and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley. Foley, though, decided to run for Governor instead, and McMahon has more than filled the void.
McMahon has never sought political office, though she served on the state’s Board of Education. While many neophyte candidates, particularly those who spent their professional lives in business, struggle in the role of political candidate, McMahon has made the transition relatively seamlessly. She has a compelling personal narrative, and is a strong retail campaigner who connects well with voters. It helps that she has vowed to finance the campaign with personal funds, committing between $30 million and $50 million to the race. She accepts contributions of $100 or less through her web site. By personally funding her campaign, McMahon is free to spend her time meeting voters.
McMahon’s resources also allowed her to go on the air early with ads in which she outlined the reasons she is running for the Senate: that federal spending and the deficit have spiraled out of control and the Senate needs more business savvy members who can address these issues. She has also aired biographical ads, including one narrated by her daughter.
In the ad, Stephanie McMahon says, “Growing up in a small town, Linda McMahon trained to become a teacher. But life had other plans. She married Vince, her high school sweetheart and together they would change the world of entertainment. But the journey wasn't smooth. They lost everything, even their home. Declaring bankruptcy when Linda was pregnant with their second child. But they started over; building a business that became World Wrestling Entertainment. With Linda as CEO, WWE's soap opera popularity grew and over 500 people in Connecticut found new jobs. Linda also served our community through the Make-A-Wish foundation, USO and other charities. And now she's running for the United States Senate because today, the American dream is in real danger. People call Linda McMahon a CEO, job creator, business leader, but I just call her mom.”
Simmons, who served three terms in Congress before losing re-election in 2006, was considered one of the House Republican Caucus’ most moderate members. In this race, though, he has embraced the causes of the Tea Party movement, particularly on fiscal responsibility. Once Foley left the race, Simmons was widely viewed as the frontrunner, but McMahon has now overtaken him.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll (March 9-15 of 1,451 registered voters and a primary sample of 387 registered Republicans), McMahon had a 10-point lead over Simmons, 44 percent to 34 percent with Schiff taking 9 percent.
While McMahon doesn’t spend much time talking about Simmons, the Simmons campaign attacks McMahon almost daily. Since she doesn’t have a voting record, Simmons is forced to run against professional wrestling, calling it violent and demeaning to women. The campaign frequently brings up the issue of steroid use by professional wrestlers in an effort to hold McMahon accountable for it. The campaign has even criticized McMahon for naming her boat Sexy Bitch, labeling it offensive. Simmons has not yet been on the air, so the attacks haven’t gained much traction, although they have generated newspaper stories and columns that are generally anti-wrestling. When Simmons does begin his television advertising, professional wrestling will undoubtedly be a major theme, but it remains to be seen whether it gains significantly more traction at that point.
Simmons started the race as a strong fundraiser, but has struggled more recently. In 2009, he raised $753,019 in the second quarter, his first full quarter of fundraising, $957,908 in the third quarter, and $634,000 in the fourth quarter. He raised $543,000 in the first quarter of this year. As of March 31, he had just over $1.4 million in the bank. McMahon has put $14 million into the race so far, finishing the first quarter with $4.3 million on hand.
Schiff, who is running a distant third in the race, has raised $2.55 million for the cycle, including $550,000 of own money. As of March 31, he had over $1.2 million in the bank. It was recently reported that he was forced to refund $120,000 in excess contributions to donors, which suggests that perhaps his campaign is not well organized. Schiff is running as a fiscal conservative. He tells voters that he first predicted the collapse of the financial services market and says that he wants to be more than just a Senator from Connecticut but a Senator for the nation, something that may not sit well with voters. He has aired television spots which have increased his name recognition and produced some small movement in the polls. It’s unclear how much money Schiff can or is willing to invest in the race, but it’s unlikely that he can compete with McMahon dollar for dollar.
The Republican state convention is May 22, but it is unlikely to change the trajectory of the race or winnow the field. The primary is August 10.
The presumptive Democratic nominee is Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who faces just nominal opposition for the nomination. Blumenthal is in his fourth term as Attorney General and has stratospheric poll numbers. According to the March Quinnipiac poll, his job ratings were 79-percent approve to 13-percent disapprove and his favorable/unfavorable ratings were 70 percent to 18 percent. These numbers alone have led many observers to write off Republicans’ chances here. We’re not convinced that’s true, assuming, of course, that McMahon is the nominee.
Blumenthal has never really had a tough race. As a result, he has a 20-year record that’s never really been combed through. It’s a pretty good bet that Republicans are doing that now. He has already demonstrated some hints of weakness on the campaign trail. Blumenthal has said that as Attorney General he never accepted contributions from special interests, especially political action committees. On his first quarter FEC report, though, he reported $223,000 in contributions from PACs. He brushed aside questions about the PAC money by saying that he never said he wouldn’t accept such contributions as a Senate candidate, a response that came off as a little disingenuous. He has also gotten some criticism for saying in a debate that lawsuits create jobs, a statement he tried to walk back in a debate earlier this month.
The first quarter marked Blumenthal’s first in the race. He raised $1.8 million, and had $1.6 million in the bank as of March 31. Money won’t be an obstacle for Blumenthal. He is expected to be a strong fundraiser, and can put in some of his own money if necessary.
If McMahon is the nominee, the general election will be a clash between an outsider, who is running to bring a fresh perspective to the Senate, and a well-liked insider with a long record. It doesn’t necessarily help Democrats that Simmons has so aggressively taken on professional wrestling because it means that the issue will be pretty thoroughly aired by the general election, leaving them with few new lines of attack against McMahon. The financial playing field will certainly be level, which would give Republicans a shot here.
Not surprisingly, Blumenthal begins the race with a substantial advantage over all three Republicans. In the March Quinnipiac poll, he was ahead of McMahon, 61 percent to 28 percent; led Simmons, 62 percent to 26 percent; and bested Schiff, 64 percent to 21 percent. It is worth noting that all three Republicans are still building their name identification.
Democrats certainly start this race with an advantage. Of the three Republicans, McMahon has the greatest potential to make this a truly competitive race. It is in the Lean Democratic column.
Connecticut Senate Update
February 4, 2010
Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd’s decision not to seek re-election was an answer to Democrats’ prayers. As much as Dodd is well liked and respected by his colleagues and strategists, it was very difficult to see how he was going to win re-election. With Dodd out of the race, Democrats ended up with a much stronger candidate in Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
Blumenthal is the most popular Democratic officeholder in the state, and he has won his five terms as Attorney General easily. He is also a proven fundraiser, though he hasn’t had to file an FEC report since he wasn’t a candidate until January.
Republicans are holding a three-way primary between former Rep. Rob Simmons, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, and investment banker Peter Schiff. Either Simmons or McMahon could have beaten Dodd, but Blumenthal’s candidacy has changed the equation. Simmons’ strength is his experience running for office, and a relatively moderate voting record. His weaknesses are that same voting record, which makes it difficult for him to run as an outsider, and questions about whether he can raise the money he’ll need to beat McMahon in a primary.
McMahon has turned out to be the quintessential outsider candidate. She is getting good reviews on the campaign trail and has vowed to spend at least $30 million of her own money on the race. She isn’t taking contributions over $100 and had invested $6 million in the race as of December 31. McMahon has never run for office before so the possibility that she could make a fatal mistake is real. Simmons and Democrats don’t go after McMahon as much as they go after WWE and its business practices, including its drug testing program and the fact it doesn’t provide health insurance to wrestlers. They also are critical of McMahon for not having detailed positions on some issues.
Schiff hasn’t been as visible in the race, relying largely on fundraising over the Internet. Still, he posted a cash-on-hand total of nearly $1.1 million as of December 31, which means that his candidacy can’t be written off.
Simmons has a small lead over McMahon in recent polling, but there are a large number of undecided voters, meaning that the race continues to be wide open.
All three Republicans currently trail Blumenthal by wide margins in general election match ups. An argument can be made that McMahon would be the strongest candidate against the Democrat by virtue of her personal fortune and outsider status. Simmons’ supporters, of course, strongly disagree with this assessment.
We suspect this race will get competitive, which is why it’s in the Lean Democratic column, but Blumenthal holds a comfortable advantage today.
Connecticut Senate: Advantage, Blumenthal
January 22, 2010
It’s hard to argue that Sen. Chris Dodd’s decision to retire at the end of this Congress rather than face what would have been a brutal re-election contest was good news for Democrats. It was becoming increasingly difficult to find a path to victory for Dodd and without him in the race, Democrats have gotten a much stronger nominee in Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
Blumenthal is arguably the most popular politician in the state of either party and has a history of winning his five terms as Attorney General easily. It’s not surprising then that polling taken after he jumped into the race shows him comfortably ahead of the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination, former Rep. Rob Simmons and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon. A Quinnipiac University poll (January 8-12 of 1,430 registered voters) showed Blumenthal ahead of Simmons, 62 percent to 27, and besting McMahon, 64 percent to 23 percent. Blumenthal’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 75 percent to 13 percent and his job approval score was a stunning 84 percent.
A Research 2000 survey (January 11-13 of 600 likely voters) also gave Blumenthal a healthy advantage over Republicans. He had a 54-percent to 35-percent lead over Simmons and was ahead of McMahon, 56 percent to 34 percent.
Simmons and McMahon still have a way to go before their name identification is even close to being universal, which means that they both have room to grow. Putting a dent in Blumenthal’s stellar image among voters will be a more difficult task, but GOP strategists believe that it can be done. They point out that Blumenthal has never had a difficult general election contest and thus no one has ever really put his record under a microscope. They also say that the Attorney General has never had to run on federal issues and will need to go to school. Of course, the same applies to McMahon, who has never sought public office. But, Blumenthal is already providing Republicans with some fodder in this regard when he suggested in a radio interview that the filibuster needs to be eliminated.
For now, Blumenthal enjoys a very comfortable lead in the race that is just two weeks old. It is possible, though, that either Simmons, as an experienced candidate, or McMahon, running as an outsider and pledging to spend $30 million, could make the race a lot more competitive and interesting than it is today.
Not surprisingly, Democrats don’t believe that the race will get competitive. They think that both Republicans are seriously flawed, pointing to Simmons’ record in Congress and to McMahon’s stewardship of professional wrestling. They also note that the Republican primary contest is likely to turn very ugly, producing an even more damaged nominee. Over the last three weeks, the primary has gotten hotter as the two campaigns lob shots back and forth, so the Democrats’ argument does not appear without merit.
In the wake of Dodd’s retirement announcement, we put the race in Toss Up until the dust settled. Now that it has and we’ve seen some polling, we are moving it to Lean Democratic and will keep watching developments closely.
Dodd Calls It A Day
January 7, 2010
It’s been apparent since the start of the election cycle that Dodd was the most vulnerable incumbent facing re-election this year. His political injuries are largely self-inflicted and range from his failed bid for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008 to questions about his stewardship of the Senate Banking Committee and to questions about mortgages he received from the now-defunct Countrywide Financial.
Dodd was well aware of his problems and ramped up his campaign early. He put up his first television ads last April and was spending more time in the state. But, polling showed no improvement in either his job approval or his favorable rating. More telling, he trailed two relatively unknown Republican candidates. In fact, Dodd’s polling numbers have been so weak that in December we took the nearly unprecedented step of moving the race to the Lean Republican column.
The state of Dodd’s political well-being was cause for great concern among Democratic leaders and strategists, and while none is jumping for joy at Dodd’s departure from the race since Dodd is both well-liked and well-respected, there was an audible sigh of relief.
Democrats didn’t have to look far for a new candidate. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has long harbored Senate ambitions and was openly talking about a challenge to independent Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2012. Shortly after Dodd’s press conference, Blumenthal officially declared his candidacy. It is unlikely that he will get a serious primary.
Blumenthal, first elected in 1990, is in his fifth term as Attorney General. He was re-elected in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote. Blumenthal graduated from Harvard University and got his law degree at Yale University where he was editor of the Yale Law Journal. After law school, he was a law clerk for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Harry Blackmun, administrative assistant to Sen. Abe Ribicoff of Connecticut and worked for former Sen. Pat Moynihan when Moynihan was Assistant to President Richard Nixon. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter appointed Blumenthal U.S. Attorney for Connecticut, a post he held until 1981. Blumenthal made his first run for political office in 1984 when he won a seat in the state House. He served for one term before winning a seat in the state Senate. He served one term before running for Attorney General.
As Attorney General, Blumenthal has focused on consumer protection, the environment, and labor and personal privacy rights. He has a reputation as a strong fundraiser, and a ubiquitous presence in the state.
A Public Policy Polling IVR survey taken over the past two days (January 4-5 of 522 registered voters) showed Blumenthal trouncing the two frontrunners for the GOP nomination. He was ahead of former Rep. Rob Simmons, 59 percent to 28 percent, and had a 60-percent to 28-percent advantage over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon.
And what does Dodd’s announcement mean for Republicans? While this remains a competitive race, it is much more difficult for them than it was 24 hours ago. Simmons may have the harder time in a race against Blumenthal since Dodd was both the motivation for his candidacy and a big part of his fundraising pitch. And, as a former Member of Congress, it will also be hard for him to run as an outsider.
McMahon is a different story. First, she is self-financing her campaign, which has an estimated budget of $30 million. Second, she can clearly run as an outsider in contrast to Blumenthal’s 25 years in elected office. Finally, while McMahon is running as a strong fiscal conservative, her views on social issues are more moderate, which will play well with independents and moderate Democrats. She also has demonstrated some strong candidate skills, particularly when it comes to retail campaigning. Still, McMahon is not without her weaknesses. She is a first-time candidate, who needs to articulate her positions on some issues. And Democratic strategists contend that it will be easy to drive up her negatives and make her an unacceptable choice.
For now, we are moving the race to the Toss Up column. Just 24 hours ago, the onus was on Dodd and Democrats to win the race. The roles are now reversed and it is Republicans who must prove to voters that their candidate is better suited to represent this solidly blue state in the Senate.
Connecticut Senate: Is Dodd Unelectable?
December 10, 2009
It’s been obvious since the start of the cycle that Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd would face the toughest campaign of his long political career. Even Dodd has publicly acknowledged his vulnerability. He got his campaign up and running early and started running flights of ads last spring.
Still, it is increasingly clear to both independent analysts and Democratic leaders that Dodd is just too badly damaged to have a decent shot at getting re-elected, almost regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. Democrats have given Dodd time to attempt to repair his problems, but nothing appears to have helped enough to salvage his position.
The Pollster.com trend estimate based on all public polling shows Dodd trailing one Republican hopeful, former Rep. Rob Simmons, by 13 points, 36 percent to 49 percent. Former World Wide Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon is also running ahead of Dodd. McMahon didn’t get into the race until September so there is not yet a meaningful trend estimate, but she held a two-point advantage, 43 percent to 41 percent, in an early November Quinnipiac University poll (November 3-8 of 1,236 registered voters) and a nine-point lead, 44 percent to 35 percent, in a December 7 Rasmussen IVR poll of 500 likely voters. Financial services executive Peter Schiff is also seeking the Republican nomination and tends to run about even with, or slightly behind, the incumbent.
Further, Dodd’s job approval and favorable/favorable trend estimates continue to show net negative ratings. According to the Pollster.com trend estimate, Dodd’s job ratings are now 41-percent approve to 52-percent disapprove. The trend estimate for his favorable/unfavorable ratings is now 41 percent to 55 percent.
These numbers jibe with our view that Dodd is about as unelectable as unindicted incumbents get. And now that Democratic leaders have reached a similar conclusion, the question is how public they have to get before Dodd takes the hint that it is time to exit the race, and how messy the situation becomes.
Dodd is enormously well liked by his Democratic colleagues, which is the primary reason he hasn’t gotten the "David Paterson treatment" already. But, Democrats can scarcely afford to lose the seat, and as much as his colleagues are loath to humiliate him, business is business.
State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is thought to have a good and certainly better chance of holding the seat for Democrats than the baggage-laden Dodd, but Blumenthal won't get into the contest until Dodd is out. If Dodd stays in the race, could Blumenthal
change his mind and challenge him in a primary, or could another Democrat step forward? It’s entirely possible.
As a general policy, the Cook Political Report does not rate unindicted incumbents worse than "Toss Up," at least until Labor Day of the election year since some endangered incumbents have a tendency to make comebacks despite appearing hopeless early in the cycle. There have been some rare exceptions to this policy over the years, and Dodd now joins that small group. The race moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
March 26, 2009
What a difference six years makes. When Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd was gearing up to run for a fifth term in 2003, there was much speculation swirling about his political future. Would Dodd run for President in 2004, or would he stay in the Senate and run for Minority Leader if then-Sen. Tom Daschle relinquished the post to run for President? Six years later, though, the speculation about Dodd’s future is less about his political ambitions than it is about his political survival.
In fact, apart from appointed Sen. Roland Burris, Dodd is the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election this cycle.
Dodd served in the House from 1974 until 1980 when he won a Senate seat and became a member of an even more exclusive club; his father was a Senator from 1959 until 1970. The younger Dodd’s first race was his closest, but he still took 56 percent. He was re-elected in 1986 with 65 percent and in 1992 with 59 percent. In 1998, he faced former Rep. Gary Franks, who ran a hapless and underfunded campaign. Dodd beat him 65 percent to 32 percent. And, in 2004, Dodd took 66 percent to 32 percent for Republican nominee Jack Orchulli, a wealthy businessman.
As a five-term member of the chamber, Dodd has gained significant seniority and influence. Not only is he chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, but he is the second most senior Democrat on the Foreign Relations and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committees. But, it is this same seniority and influence that is largely responsible for Dodd’s current political problems and rank him as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election next year.
While Dodd’s role in allowing the AIG bonuses has shined a bright light on his vulnerability, it is just one of several factors, albeit a very big one, that have made him a top GOP target.
Dodd became chairman of the Banking Committee in January of 2007, at about the time he announced his candidacy for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Both are time consuming tasks and both have caused him political problems at home.
Dodd’s quest for the presidential nomination was a long shot at best. He didn’t have Hillary Clinton’s money or Barack Obama’s organization, and he wasn’t especially well known even among party activists, despite a stint as chairman of the Democratic National Committee in the mid-1990s. What Dodd did have was connections to the financial services industry which enabled him to raise enough money to run a respectable campaign.
The campaign’s strategy was simple: a strong showing in the Iowa Caucuses would provide some momentum to propel Dodd to the next round. Dodd put all his time and energy into Iowa, even moving his family there in October of 2007 and enrolling his daughter in public school. Dodd got less than one percent of the vote in Iowa and dropped out of the race the next day.
While voters certainly don’t hold Dodd’s loss against him, many are unhappy about his temporary move to Des Moines. As the Connecticut Post wrote in an editorial, "How can he identify himself as D-Conn., when he lives in Iowa?"
The presidential campaign does open Dodd up to one other significant charge; in his quest for the nomination, the Banking Committee chairman missed the warning signs of the impending banking crisis. Republicans make the argument that Dodd was asleep at the switch and is thus at least partly responsible for the severity of the crisis. Given that Dodd spent much of 2007 on the campaign trail and the country is enduring the worst financial crisis in decades, it’s not hard to see how voters might buy into this argument without too much convincing.
Revelations about the bonuses for AIG executives and the language in the stimulus bill that allowed them to happen sparked an angry reaction from voters and only served to strengthen Republicans’ case. The language that grandfathered AIG’s bonuses was included in a Dodd-sponsored package to limit compensation for executives at banks that took TARP funds. Dodd’s reaction to questions about how the language found its way into the legislation only made the situation worse.
First, Dodd said that he didn’t know the language was there, which made him look out of the loop. A day later, he said that he did know the language was there, but it was included at the request of the Treasury Department. He further said that he was not aware at the time that the AIG bonuses even existed. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner did admit that his department had asked for the language. In a third attempt at explaining his role, Dodd said that he misconstrued the original question, and that while he opposed the language, he knew it was there and that the Administration had asked for it because it feared legal challenges. None of these explanations seemed to help Dodd make his case. Instead he came off looking as if he didn’t know what was in the stimulus bill or that he simply did what the administration told him to do without asking questions or considering the implications. The New York Times had little trouble finding Connecticut voters, including some who are unemployed, who are angry at Dodd’s role in the bonus debacle.
Reports that Dodd got $103,100 from AIG executives for his 2008 presidential run (and a total of $280,000 overall since 1990) and received $27,500 in contributions from indicted financier R. Allen Stanford or people related to his company have only added to the controversy. Dodd said he would return any contribution from an AIG executive who received—and kept—a bonus, and he donated the Stanford funds to charity. He had made an earlier promise not to accept PAC contributions from any company that took TARP funds. These are all wise moves, but they are not likely to ease voters’ anger or provide a reason for them to give Dodd the benefit of the doubt.
While the AIG bonus incident serves as a lesson about the dangers of rushing through complicated and far-reaching legislation and excluding the minority from final negotiations on such bills, it has given Republicans a powerful vehicle through which to attack Dodd and his stewardship of the Banking Committee.
The financial crisis may be the most significant argument in the GOP’s case against the incumbent, but there are other examples that they will use to paint Dodd as out of touch with his constituents and a creature of Washington.
The first involves Countrywide Financial, a now-defunct mortgage company that specialized in subprime lending. Dodd refinanced his homes in Washington and Connecticut through Countrywide and was put on a VIP list known as the Friends of Angelo, a reference to Angelo Mazilo, who was then president of Countrywide Home Loans. When the issue came up over the summer, Dodd said he was not given favorable treatment and several months later allowed some reporters to look at documents he said proved that he wasn’t given more favorable rates than were available to the general public at the time. He also said he would refinance the two mortgages with a different lender. Reporters were allowed to look at documents but weren’t permitted to make copies, so while they reported their findings, they didn’t seem satisfied that they had been given time to research and confirm what they had been shown.
Republicans on the House Oversight Committee added a little fuel to the fire when they released a report that said a Countrywide Financial executive "overrode the company's loan-writing policies to give a discount" to Dodd. Republicans did admit, though, that there was "no direct evidence that Dodd was aware at the time that he was getting a discount." The report did say that Dodd “appear[s] to have violated" Senate ethics rules. Dodd’s spokesman disputed the report’s findings and conclusion, pointing to the Senator’s own report that said he got no favorable treatment.
The second involves Dodd’s close friend, Edward Downe, Jr. Downe was convicted in 1993 of tax and securities fraud and fined $11 million. In early 2001 during President Clinton’s last days in office, Dodd asked him to pardon Downe. Despite the fact that Dodd did not send the request through the usual Justice Department channels, Clinton granted the pardon.
Dodd’s relationship with Downe appears to be at the root of a third problem. In 1994, Dodd and Downe’s business partner William Kessinger of Kansas City paid $160,000 for a house on 10 acres of land on the coast of Ireland. Kessinger picked up two-thirds of the cost, or $107,000. In 2002, Kessinger sold his share of the house to Dodd for $122,000, making a profit of $15,000 even though the house is worth considerably more thanks to Ireland’s real estate boom. Dodd’s spokesman said of this and other real estate deals “... these transactions are completely transparent, routine, and noncontroversial.” Voters might not see it that way.
If Dodd doesn’t already have enough difficult problems to address, it is worth noting that he also has never had a competitive race (the presidential primary contest doesn’t really count), and thus has never had to run a modern campaign, something that should concern Democratic operatives.
Even before the AIG bonus story broke, polling showed Dodd in a very precarious position with voters. A Quinnipiac University poll (March 3-8 of 1,238 registered voters) showed Dodd’s job approval numbers at 49-percent approve to 44-percent disapprove, and his favorable/unfavorable ratings at 46 percent to 45 percent. Only 32 percent said they approve of Dodd’s performance as chairman of the Banking Committee compared to 50 percent who disapprove.
A Quinnipiac University poll taken late last year (December 11-15, 2008 of 1,445 registered voters) showed that 44 percent would “definitely” or “probably” vote to re-elect Dodd, while 47 percent would “definitely” or “probably” not vote for him.
Given the material they have to work with, it’s not a big surprise that Republicans have been actively recruiting a first-tier candidate to challenge Dodd. Today, former Rep. Rob Simmons is the only announced challenger. Simmons was an operations officer with the Central Intelligence Agency, worked on the staff of the late Sen. John Chafee, was staff director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and spent a decade in the Connecticut House of Representatives before being elected to the House in 2000. He represented the 2nd congressional district that encompasses the eastern third of the state and includes New London. Before the 2008 election, the district had a Partisan Voting Index score of D+8, meaning that it voted eight points more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
In 2000, Simmons upset longtime Democratic Rep. Sam Gejdenson, 51 percent to 49 percent, and earned a permanent place on Democrats’ target list. In 2002, Simmons defeated Democrat Joe Courtney, 54 percent to 46 percent, and in 2004, he beat Jim Sullivan by the same margin, even as Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry won the district with 54 percent. Simmons wasn’t so lucky in 2006 when he faced Courtney in a rematch. This time, Courtney won the race by 83 votes.
Simmons announced his candidacy on March 15, saying that he planned to raise $5 million for the race. Democrats immediately attacked him, saying that Simmons is not the moderate he claims to be. They also linked him to Bush’s policies, as well as to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. While Democrats will certainly be able to cherry pick votes, Simmons did accumulate a very centrist record in his six years in the House.
A number of other candidates are looking at the race, including businessman Thomas Foley, who served as Ambassador to Ireland from October 2006 until this past January. Foley has hired the Tarrance Group to test the viability of his candidacy. State Sen. Sam Caligiuri is also looking at the race. Finally, there is an effort to draft Peter Schiff into the GOP primary. He has been an adviser to Rep. and GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul, and has logged a lot of cable airtime as an opponent of federal bailouts and the stimulus legislation.
Whether any of these candidates actually gets into the race is unknown, but polling shows that Simmons would be a very competitive candidate. In the early March Quinnipiac poll, Simmons and Dodd were statistically tied in a general election match-up, with the Republican ahead by a point, 43 percent to 42 percent. Dodd bested Caligiuri, 47 percent to 34 percent.
As bad as things look for Dodd, he does have some real advantages in the race. Connecticut is a solid blue state. In fact, it is the sixth most Democratic state in the nation, according to Gallup. Although Republicans control the governorship, Democrats hold all five House seats and hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature by comfortable margins. Despite his self-imposed rules that will limit his ability to raise money from the financial services industry, Dodd should be able to raise the necessary campaign funds, though it may take a lot more effort. Finally, he starts the race with a united Democratic Party and a popular President behind him. Dodd’s colleague, Sen. Joe Lieberman, has endorsed him and has come to his defense on the AIG bonus issue. While normally such an endorsement should be expected, Dodd supported the Democratic nominee over Lieberman when he ran for re-election as an independent in 2006, and some observers wondered whether Lieberman would return the favor.
Despite recent speculation that Dodd may decide to retire, he insists that he will seek a sixth term. As long as he does, he is guaranteed to face a competitive and bruising campaign. At the same time, it is possible that Dodd could look at his poll numbers and his cash-on-hand balance in a couple of months, and decide to retire. This, of course, is Republicans’ biggest fear. They have a 50-50 shot at beating Dodd, but the GOP nominee would be an underdog against a generic Democratic candidate.
We have had the race in Likely Democratic, largely because of Connecticut’s strong Democratic tilt and the absence of an announced GOP challenger. The AIG bonus fiasco and more recent poll numbers, coupled with Simmons’ announcement, have earned Dodd a move to the Toss Up column.
