House

House District Analysis: HI-ID

March 11, 2010
House Editor David Wasserman releases baseline analysis for House races in Hawaii and Idaho, including the special election race to succeed Hawaii Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who has resigned to run for governor. Although the Aloha State's 1st CD is President Obama's native district and gave him 70 percent of the vote in 2008, the all-party, winner-take-all format of the special election gives GOP Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, the best-funded candidate in the race, a chance to shoot the gap and win a plurality over two serious Democrats.

The fact that this election will be conducted entirely by mail between April 30th and May 22nd (unprecedented in Hawaii House races) only adds to the special election's unpredictability. Democrats are hoping that Democratic former Rep. Ed Case takes a large enough share of independents and allows Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa to hold onto enough Democrats to win, but this could shape up to be a genuinely competitive three-way race.
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Delahunt's Retirement Moves MA-10 To Toss Up

March 5, 2010
It's been 16 years since any Republican won a House seat in Massachusetts. But Rep. Bill Delahunt's South Shore-Cape Cod district is the least Democratic in the state, sporting a Partisan Voter Index score of D+5. The last time this seat came open in 1996, Delahunt took only 54 percent of the general election vote after a contentious primary. And even though President Obama took 55 percent of the district's vote in 2008, GOP Sen. Scott Brown took 60 percent here in January's special election - a remarkable showing in a district home to the Kennedy compound.

Delahunt's decision to leave doesn't make this district a lost cause for Democrats by any means, but credible Republicans including former state Treasurer Joe Malone and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry are likely to run, and no Democrat appears capable of clearing a primary field. In a normal year, Democrats would enjoy a considerable advantage in an open seat race in MA-10. But this year, Democrats' initial advantage isn't great enough to warrant rating this race more favorably than a Toss Up.
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Ratings Changes: Which Democrats Look Like Survivors in 2010?

March 4, 2010
Not many things are moving in Democrats' direction these days. But as House Editor David Wasserman explains, even in very lopsided years, there are always a few races that buck the trend. In Alabama's 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright hasn't so much as flirted with taking his leadership's side on a major issue before the House and polling now shows him with a very comfortable early lead. In North Carolina's 8th District, Republicans are having a hard time getting their act together against another freshman Democrat, Rep. Larry Kissell. And with a week to go before Arkansas's filing deadline, Republicans in the open 1st CD still haven't found anyone on their wish list who wants to take the plunge.
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