When you have a theory about something, a useful exercise to conduct is to ask yourself, "If I am wrong, why am I wrong?" If you're intellectually honest, there's nobody better to poke holes in your theory than yourself. Presumably, you have studied and thought about the issue a great deal, and looked at it from many angles, and alternative theories would almost have to emerge.
Obviously, a great deal has happened over the last year to affect the political situation for President Obama and congressional Democrats. Serious mistakes and miscalculations by Democrats on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue created some of these problems, while others were problems that were not necessarily of Democrats' making.
Whenever someone asks if the 2010 midterm elections will be "another 1994" it makes me roll my eyes. No two election years are alike -- the causes, circumstances and dynamics are always different to anyone who takes more than a casual look.
Monday morning's announcement by Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., that he would not seek re-election certainly stirred things up on Capitol Hill.
It's an exaggeration to say that the dam is breaking for House Democrats as incumbents in tough districts retire. But it's an understatement to say that four such members announcing their retirements in four weeks is a trickle.
Republicans hope the back-to-back retirement announcements of Reps. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., and John Tanner, D-Tenn., will set off an avalanche that could make a takeover of the House more likely. While two does not a trend make, if this does mark the beginning of one, GOP hopes and Democratic fears could turn out to be true.
It is trite to say that any given week is of critical importance for the president of the United States. In that job, every week either is or has the potential to be pretty critical. However, in terms of defining the trajectory for the next year, the year that leads into the report card known more commonly as the midterm elections, this week is pretty key.
For better or worse, politics, like life, is rarely simple or one-dimensional. Generally, there are competing dynamics, ones that most would agree are relatively important, and others whose importance is highly debatable. Certainly, this 2010 midterm election is no exception.
Denial is not a river; it is a state of mind. It's inhabited by Democrats and liberal-leaning journalists who blame Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds for Democrats' loss of the governorship, all statewide offices, and a five-seat net loss in the state House of Delegates, with a sixth seat too close to call.
Many years ago, one of the great Republican campaign consultants of the day, Eddie Mahe, wrote a fascinating, periodic memo, "Assumptions," where he laid out what might be expected in politics, domestic policy, economics and anything else he thought relevant.
