Double Endorsement From Trump Complicates Arizona GOP Primary for Governor

Back in December, it looked like Arizona Republican Karrin Taylor Robson was on a glide path to winning the gubernatorial nomination she was denied in 2022 and then taking on Gov. Katie Hobbs, seen as the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the country.

President Donald Trump had just praised Robson at a Turning Point USA event, pledging his support. “Karrin, are you running for governor?” Trump asked. “Because if you do, you're going to have my support.”

But once Rep. Andy Biggs — a former House Freedom Caucus chairman ideologically more aligned with Trump — announced unexpectedly in January that he was joining the GOP primary, Robson’s coronation was no longer assured. In an April Truth Social post, Trump announced he was now backing both Robson and Biggs.

Now, more than 15 months before primary voters will pick their party’s nominee, Robson is up with her first ad touting Trump’s support — using the video clip from the December event with Trump, one advantage she has over Biggs — even though she can no longer claim sole ownership of his endorsement.

Such is the fickleness of Trump, who demands unfettered loyalty but rarely sees it as a two-way street. Now Republicans have renewed urgency to prevent a messy primary from costing them a winnable seat yet again — even though that has been the story of statewide GOP races in Arizona for the past decade.

Robson also had a high-profile break last week with top Trump surrogates who had signed on as advisers — Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio. According to Axios, the split was in part due to a push for Robson to go up earlier on the air to tout her endorsement from Trump. (Other sources in the state point out that advertising in May of an off year ahead of an August 2026 primary seems plenty early regardless — especially with voters likely sick of ads after seeing an unending barrage in the Senate and presidential race last year.)

Robson spent nearly $19 million of her own money on her last gubernatorial race, only to lose to former local TV anchor Kari Lake in the primary. Lake would go on to lose to Hobbes — a fact Lake would never concede and challenge in court. Last fall, Lake again lost what state and national Republicans saw as a winnable Senate race against Democrat Ruben Gallego, falling short even as Trump carried the state by more than five points.

Robson, a former Arizona Board of Regents member and wealthy real estate developer, has a background that turns off many MAGA activists. She’s from the more moderate wing of the Arizona GOP,  more in the vein of former Sen. John McCain or former Gov. Doug Ducey than the hard-right base that backed Lake despite concerns about her electability statewide. When Trump endorsed her last year, the founder of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, Jake Hoffman, wrote on X that Trump “should fire whichever consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for AZ Governor.” Conservatives criticize Robson for backing an Arizona law which allowed so-called “Dreamers” to receive in-state tuition at public universities; Trump recently issued an executive order to halt such measures nationwide.

Sources close to Robson concede that she starts out behind in this race, but they argue that her new ad blitz — nearly $1.3 million so far, per AdImpact — will quickly change that dynamic. A poll from The Club for Growth — which has backed Biggs heavily in the past but hasn’t officially endorsed him this time around — confirmed as much. A Pulse Decision Science poll conducted April 6-9 showed Biggs leading Robson by 29 points, 45%-16%. And to rebuff any talk of electability concerns, the survey also showed Biggs running closer to Hobbs than Robson, running just four points behind (42%-46%) compared to nine points for Robson (38%-47%). A non-partisan poll from Arizona Public Opinion Pulse conducted in mid-February found a closer contest, with Biggs at 14%, Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk (who had been mentioned by some as a potential candidate early on) also at 14% and Robson at 11%; almost half the voters were undecided. It also showed Biggs trailing Hobbs by only two points (38%-40%) while Robson was behind the governor by eight points (35%-43%).

While Robson spent heavily in the 2022 race, Republicans in the state say that doesn’t mean voters necessarily will remember her immediately.

“She has the opportunity to reintroduce herself,” said one Arizona GOP strategist. “She was renting name ID. So I think it’s back to square one, which gives her an opportunity.” Biggs, meanwhile, who was Arizona Senate president before winning a safe Mesa-based seat in 2016, “has never had a real race” since that primary, the strategist argued.

Some Republicans in the state maintain that Biggs would be a fine alternative to Robson — even if he doesn’t have her ability to self-fund to the tune of millions of dollars  — and that his nomination wouldn’t set off alarm bells the same way that Lake’s did in 2024.

Biggs isn’t as polarizing as Lake, who as a Senate candidate was never able to shake the high negative ratings she incurred during her gubernatorial run two years prior In her first race, Lake labeled McCain a “loser” and suggested his moderate bloc of supporters should “get the hell out.” While Biggs’ conservative credentials can’t be denied, sources close to him note he hasn’t thumbed his nose at those middle-of-the-road voters in the same way that Lake did.

But while Lake was able to defeat the high-spending Robson in 2022 by sheer force, other Republicans in the state argue that, despite the dual endorsement from Trump, it may be only Robson who has the cash to portray herself as the president’s choice. Biggs has never been a strong fundraiser — raising just $181,000 so far — and he can’t transfer money from his federal race to the state race.

“If you get a Trump endorsement and don’t have the money to tell voters, do you really have the Trump endorsement?” wondered Arizona GOP consultant Barrett Marson. “Biggs has the grassroots, but there are going to be 500,000 people who vote in this election, and they will be swayed by ads on their TV, on Facebook, on every platform they’re on.”

Of course, that disparity could change if the Club or other outside groups get behind Biggs financially. Robson, however, would still see more bang for her buck with lower candidate ad rates.

Other Republicans in the state think that Robson should be using her money to hammer Biggs now, including highlighting how the conservative congressman is pushing for unpopular cuts to Medicaid to fund reauthorizing Trump’s tax cuts. While his Medicaid stance may not turn off GOP prima
ry voters en masse, it would certainly be a general election message Democrats would be happy to advertise. (Democrats will also be eager to spotlight Biggs’ role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, when he allegedly helped Trump plot ways to overturn the presidential results.)

“What I would do is go after Biggs,” said one veteran GOP strategist in the state. “With her money, you could make him an unattractive candidate.”

But the strategist also compared Robson’s predicament to that of former appointed Sen. Martha McSally, who struggled to remake her identity as MAGA in the 2018 and 2020 races for Senate and, as a result, came across as inauthentic with voters.

Still, it’s no secret that Democrats would rather face Biggs than Robson, and they’re rooting for a messy primary that sullies whoever the nominee is. While early polls may show that Biggs even fares slightly better than Robson against Hobbs, surveys this early only largely indicate name ID. Instead, it’s candidates like Biggs whose hard-right politics have lost winnable races for Republicans before. While Robson would appear to be the stronger general election candidate historically, she also can’t move too far to the right. It’s the same conundrum Republicans have faced repeatedly in Arizona.  

Hobbs’ campaign maintains she has been underestimated, with her 2022 win seen as a fluke because Lake was the nominee. And Arizona voters have been prone to reelect their governors — the last incumbent to lose was back in 1968. Early polls have still shown her with the narrow edge.