The 11 races for governor this cycle are largely safe affairs. Republican incumbents will be reelected in Montana and Vermont, while Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia are expected to easily elect new GOP governors. Delaware remains a Democratic lock, with New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer heavily favored to succeed term-limited Gov. John Carney. And two races we anticipated being more competitive, North Carolina and Washington state, have moved decisively toward Democrats.
The small gubernatorial playing field expanded slightly on Tuesday when we moved Indiana’s race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, partly reflecting the Democratic Governors Association’s focus on a second pickup now that North Carolina is all but wrapped up. But with former President Donald Trump poised to once again carry the state by double digits, GOP Sen. Mike Braun remains a clear favorite.
At this point, the best Republicans can hope for is to maintain their 27-23 edge in governorships by defending their open seat in New Hampshire. If Democrats are able to flip that race to their side, the GOP’s edge across the country would
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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