
Democrats in Washington have spent months trying to will a second Republican-held governorship onto the playing field, even though the vast majority of remaining targets lie on decidedly tough turf. With the finish line in sight, they’ve settled on the open race in Indiana as the most promising potential pickup. Enough developments have transpired to distinguish the Hoosier State from the other six races in the Solid Republican column, warranting a shift to Likely Republican.
The GOP remains favored to retain Indiana’s governorship, which they’ve won five cycles in a row. But Democrats have a strong recruit in former state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, a longtime Republican who has leaned into populist messaging on abortion rights and education. And the last five months have hardly been smooth sailing for the tension-riddled Republican ticket, which features an awkward marriage of GOP factions.
With both the Democratic Governors Association and Republican Governors Association now investing in Indiana, it’s clear this race has assumed a more competitive posture. Though still a longshot for Democrats, here are five key factors that give
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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