Suddenly, the future of New Jersey’s political landscape looks about as clear as the Hudson River.
Both parties are still grappling with the abrupt abolition of the state’s county line system, which for decades empowered local political machines to give favored candidates top ballot placement in primaries. The conviction of former Sen. Bob Menendez and indictment of South Jersey operative George Norcross on corruption charges has left the once-dominant Democratic establishment reeling. Capping off a year of surprises, Vice President Kamala Harris posted the worst showing for a Democratic presidential candidate in New Jersey since 1992.
All of those developments have set the stage for a 2025 gubernatorial election that more closely resembles the Wild West than the white-collar Northeast. A half-dozen Democrats and several Republicans have already announced campaigns to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, whose shockingly narrow 51%-48% win in 2021 portended rough waters ahead for his party.
At its core, the math is still better for Democrats in New Jersey. But the Garden State is also no stranger to electing GOP governors with moderate brands: Since
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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