The post-presidential off-year Virginia gubernatorial contest just south of the nation’s capital always draws outsized attention. In all but one cycle in the last 50 years, the party out of the White House has prevailed, usually a harbinger of backlash to the new presidential administration.
The 2025 race is poised to make history in at least one way: with both Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears looking like they have cleared their party’s primary fields, the Old Dominion is set to elect its first female governor. If Earle-Sears wins, she would become the first Black woman elected to lead a state in U.S. history.
But Earle-Sears, 60, has a difficult battle ahead against Spanberger, 45, who didn’t run for reelection last month in order to focus full-time on her quest for the governorship. A prodigious fundraiser since she was elected to the House in 2018, Spanberger has already raised $9 million for the race, and her campaign says 1,200 new volunteers signed up since the November elections. Plus, any backlash to another Trump term may be
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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