The Virginia governor’s race is officially set, with both Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears avoiding a primary. This means that the commonwealth will elect its first female governor come November.
When we initially rated this contest in December, we put the race in Toss Up, given the absence of early polling and the uncertainty of the political climate before Donald Trump’s second term began. However, after talks with sources on both sides of the aisle — taking into consideration the political environment, Democratic enthusiasm and private polling — we are shifting the Virginia governor’s race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
Spanberger, a former congresswoman who didn’t run for reelection last year to focus on her bid for governor, so far has a clear money advantage as well as history on her side, given that the party out of the White House has typically been rewarded in the off-year Virginia contests. Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor, still hopes to benefit from term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s enduring popularity by making the case that she'd be the next steward of his
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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