There are just eleven gubernatorial races on the ballot this November, and only three are truly competitive. Open seats in North Carolina and New Hampshire are the biggest targets for both parties, but a third state is creeping up on the map — Washington.

Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee announced last year he wouldn’t seek an unprecedented fourth term, and in a presidential cycle in a state President Joe Biden carried by 19 points, this shouldn’t be a headache for Democrats. But that changed when Republicans landed a top-tier challenger in former Rep. Dave Reichert.

We shifted our rating from Solid to Likely Democrat back in February, and though we don’t have a ton of data yet, initial polls ahead of the August 6 all-party primary show an increasingly tight contest between Reichert and the Democratic frontrunner, state Attorney General Bob Ferguson.

A May 15-16 poll from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Ferguson and Reichert leading the field at 35% and 28%, respectively, followed by Republican Semi Bird (running to Reichert’s right) at 11% and

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