Arizona was a particular bright spot for Republicans in 2024 — it swung toward President Donald Trump by a larger margin than any other battleground state, giving a significant boost to Republicans further down the ballot. Republican Reps. David Schweikert (AZ-01) and Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) won hard-fought races in districts that Biden had narrowly carried in 2020 and shifted toward Trump in 2024.
But Schweikert and Ciscomani remain two of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the country, and Democrats are hoping for a more favorable environment in the state next November. For the first time in a decade, there won’t be a competitive Senate race on the ballot sucking up the political oxygen in the state. Both parties expect the governor’s race to be a dogfight, but it’s too soon to tell the impact it’ll have on the U.S. House races. At the outset, the races in the 1st and 6th districts both start out as Toss Ups.
Democrats are also keeping an eye on Arizona’s 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Eli Crane might face another challenge from former
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