California’s Central Valley will once again be at the center of the House battleground map in 2026. Democratic Rep. Adam Gray (CA-13) won his race by a smaller margin than any other House member and is one of the 13 Democrats representing seats that Donald Trump carried in 2024, putting him at the top of Republicans’ target list. And Republicans are hoping that they can build on Trump’s significant gains with Hispanic voters in the region, potentially putting Reps. Josh Harder (CA-09) and Jim Costa (CA-21) in jeopardy.
GOP Rep. David Valadao (CA-22) remains a top target for Democrats, but as his district moves to the right, defeating him has become increasingly difficult. However, the biggest threat to Valadao may be from his own party. A GOP tax bill that makes significant cuts to Medicaid is going to be politically toxic in this district where nearly half of the population is enrolled in the health care program.
Democrats are also keeping an eye on Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA-03), who represents the northern exurbs of Sacramento and the eastern ridge of
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