Democrats’ path to the House majority might increasingly come down to a tranche of competitive races across California. Republicans are defending five seats we’ve rated as Toss Ups: the 13th and 22nd districts in the Central Valley, the 27th District in Los Angeles County, the 45th District in Orange County and the 41st District in the Inland Empire stretching east of LA.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance in her home state will make or break Democrats’ prospects in each of these races. She’s likely to carry the seats held by GOP Reps. John Duarte (CA-13), David Valadao (CA-22), Mike Garcia (CA-27) and Michelle Steel (CA-45), but might underperform Joe Biden’s 2020 margin. GOP Rep. Ken Calvert has a more favorable district (Trump carried it by one point in 2020, and polls show him winning the district again), but has his own baggage that’s dragging him down.
Though Harris should win four out of these five districts, there’s evidence that Democrats might be slipping across the state, particularly among Latino voters. A poll commissioned by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles
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