As Florida has become the center of the Republican political universe in the Trump era, Democrats’ prospects in the Sunshine State have looked increasingly dim. That’s particularly true in South Florida, where Donald Trump has dramatically increased his margins since 2016 among the region’s Hispanic voters.
Republicans’ dominance explains in part why there are so few competitive races among the state’s 28 House districts. But it’s also due to the congressional map drawn in 2022 that prioritized protecting sitting incumbents. At this point in the cycle, the only two potentially competitive districts are Florida’s 23rd District, held by Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, and the 13th District, held by Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. But there’s a handful of other districts that could come online later in the cycle depending on how the political environment evolves.
We’re also keeping an eye on the 19th District, left open now that Rep. Byron Donalds is running for governor. Other members on the retirement watch list are 82-year-old Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson and 75-year-old GOP Rep. Daniel Webster, who has had some primary troubles.
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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