With Democrats just three seats short of a House majority, the party is looking for any opening to force Republicans on defense. Their first electoral test will be next Tuesday, when voters cast ballots to fill two vacant seats in Florida. But though the Democratic candidates have harnessed progressive donors’ outrage at the Trump administration to raise gob-smacking sums of money, their odds of winning either race remain incredibly slim.
These two districts are among the most conservative in the Sunshine State. President Donald Trump carried the 1st District, vacated by scandal-ridden Rep. Matt Gaetz, by 37 points. He won the 6th District, left open by now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, by a similar margin at 30 points. Gaetz, despite facing allegations of sexual misconduct and illegal drug use, won reelection last November by 32 points; Waltz won by 33 points.
Over the past several years, the highly-engaged voters most likely to participate in low turnout off-year elections have moved against the GOP, leading Democratic candidates to overperform in recent special elections. So far, Democratic candidates in special elections for
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