This morning, sophomore Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) announced he would run for Senate in 2016, giving Democrats a credible candidate for GOP Sen. Marco Rubio's seat. But Democrats will be hard pressed to keep his House seat along Florida's Treasure Coast. Murphy is one of just five remaining House Democrats in a district won by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney; Romney took 52 percent here in 2012. As a result, we are moving this newly open seat to Toss Up. Not many Democrats could scare away top-tier GOP opposition in a Romney district in a year like 2014, but Murphy did. Between his prolific fundraising (he raised a whopping $5.6 million for his House reelection race) and effective branding as a young, bipartisan, anti-perks outsider, he intimidated Republicans' top choices out of the race and won a second term with 60 percent of the vote. Democrats can't expect to replicate that success in an open seat scenario, but they do have a bench here. Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay, Palm Beach County prosecutor Dave Aronberg, and state Rep.
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