Political operatives have spent the past several months poring over the 2024 presidential election results by congressional district, calculating where candidates for the House ran ahead — or fell short — of the nominees at the top of the ticket. Though that data remains an invaluable baseline of partisan performance heading into the 2026 midterms, it only tells a part of each seat’s story.

This week, The Cook Political Report took a look under the hood at some other important statistical measures that provide intriguing hints about how next year’s battle for the House might unfold. All data comes directly from the United States Census Bureau, with the exception of the dataset on Medicaid enrollment, which was released by New York University’s Congressional District Health Dashboard.

Education

The 2016 election kicked educational polarization into overdrive, and possession of a college degree continues to be one of the most effective predictors of partisan strength at all levels of government. Democrats now hold all 25 of the districts with the highest share of bachelor’s degree recipients, the vast majority of which are concentrated

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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.

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