The 11 Incumbents Most Vulnerable to a Primary Challenge

Though the lion’s share of House members never worry about winning their general elections, a handful of members every cycle inevitably lose their primaries. These members are often in deep red or blue districts, and face opposition from hyper-partisan primary voters hoping to pull their representatives to the right or left. Others pay a price for specific votes that anger well-funded outside groups willing to spend significantly on a primary challenger. And increasingly, some older members have faced questions about their fitness to serve.

But taking out even the most embattled incumbent is an expensive, difficult task. Last cycle, just four members of Congress lost their primaries: Democratic Reps. Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, and GOP Reps. Bob Good and Jerry Carl (who lost to fellow Rep. Barry Moore after a redrawn congressional map merged them into the same seat.)

Several members, however, had close calls and could be vulnerable again in 2026. Here’s our early list of 11 incumbents — six Republicans and five Democrats — who could face competitive primaries next year.

Only two Republican