Kansas's emphatic rejection of an amendment to roll back abortion protections confirmed House Democrats' fall message: they'll use Dobbs to squeeze pro-life Republicans in Biden-won seats like Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02) as well as GOP nominees who favor flat abortion bans with no exceptions, including John Gibbs (MI-03). In Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids's Toss Up suburban 3rd CD, the ballot measure failed by more than two-to-one.

It's clear the abortion issue has swiftly galvanized Democrats. What's less clear is whether it will override independent voters' inflation concerns in the context of partisan races. The final results of upcoming special elections in Minnesota's 1st CD (August 9, Cook PVI of R+8), Alaska's At Large seat (August 16, R+8) and New York's 19th and 23rd CDs (August 23, R+2 and R+9) will be much better gauges of the post-Dobbs landscape heading into the fall.

Trump-endorsed former HUD official John Gibbs defeated pro-impeachment freshman Rep. Peter Meijer 52%-48% in Tuesday's primary. But Gibbs could have a difficult time unifying GOP voters for the fall, considering the Grand Rapids suburbs are chock full of

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Charlie "Chuck" Cook