The finish line is well within sight, but control of the House remains murky as ever. Democrats only need to net four pickups to get over the 218-seat threshold for a majority. Yet with zero Republican-held open seats in the Toss Up column, that requires them to unseat multiple GOP incumbents.
Most of their targets are freshmen who rode midterm red waves in California and New York and sit in seats where Democrats have traditionally performed well in presidential election years. But in one of the most untraditional elections in memory, there’s no guarantee that past will be prologue — especially in seats with racially diverse populations.
At the moment, Republicans’ best offensive opportunity appears to be Michigan’s 7th District, the open seat Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin left to run for the Senate. Though the GOP has slightly fewer offensive opportunities, they remain competitive in the five Democratic-held seats Donald Trump carried in 2020. And if Trump has a better night than expected, several Democratic incumbents in more marginal seats — like Reps. Don Davis, Gabe Vasquez and Susan Wild
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