Every presidential election cycle, a handful of House candidates manage to defy political gravity and win reelection in seats carried by the opposing party’s presidential nominee. After the 2020 election cycle, 16 members sat in crossover districts (an all-time low). House Republicans held nine of those seats; House Democrats held seven. Following the 2022 midterms, crossover districts disproportionately skewed toward Republicans: 18 Republicans sat in Biden-won seats, with just five Democrats in Trump-won seats.
But that dynamic flipped in 2024. By and large, the overperformers in the most competitive House races this year were Democrats, and they now represent the bulk of these crossover districts. We won’t know the final presidential margins in House races until the new year, but preliminary calculations show at least 11 Democrats sit in seats that Trump won, while only two or maybe three Republicans are in Harris-won seats. Those overperformers kept Republicans from gaining seats — with a few races left to call, Republicans are on track to keep their 221-seat majority, or lose one seat.
So far, there are just two districts where
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