At the rate President Trump generates controversy, an impeachment trial could be a distant memory by next November. But even as Speaker Nancy Pelosi can count on enough votes to pass articles of impeachment, it's clear impeachment attitudinally divides House Democrats more than House Republicans — because the 31 Democrats in Trump-won districts are in a no-win situation. To win reelection, Democratic freshmen from Trump districts such as Reps. Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02), Kendra Horn (OK-05) and Joe Cunningham (SC-01), must retain their own base voters while holding onto a few Trump sympathizers. Those coalitions could be difficult to preserve either way they vote since there is little room for forgiveness on impeachment in either party's base. Behind the scenes, Democrats are less bullish about public support for Trump's removal than in October, when they voted to open an inquiry and only Reps. Collin Peterson (MN-07) and Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02) defected. That means there could be a handful more blue defections on a final House vote, even though those Democrats already voted to formalize an inquiry and will get

More from the Cook Political Report

CPR 2024 National Polling Average
Cook Politcal Logo
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo