The 2022 midterm cycle was defined by divergent results across different regions of the country: Republicans ran strongest in blue states, picking up seats that Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020, while Democrats mostly held the line in districts in purple and red states.
That phenomenon appears to be continuing this cycle. In New York and California, district-level polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris running behind Biden’s 2020 margin (though still several points ahead of where Biden was polling earlier this year). But in House races across the Midwest, Harris appears to be matching Biden’s 2020 margin — or in some places, even gaining some ground.
That’s particularly true in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts, held by GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, respectively. We’re moving both districts, currently rated Lean Republican, into the Toss Up column. Though the 1st District is slightly more Republican-leaning than the 3rd, Miller-Meeks is a uniquely weak incumbent.
Democratic Reps. Frank Mrvan (IN-01) and Eric Sorensen (IL-17) are also in relatively strong positions to win reelection. Though these two districts have
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.