In the wake of the New Hampshire primary, Republicans will be hard-pressed to pry either of the state's House seats out of the Democratic column. The state's notoriously independent electorate tends to swing hard towards parties riding a wave, and we're moving both of the state's House seats in Democrats' direction. On the opposite coast, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa (CA-16) can't take his reelection for granted.
CA-16: Costa (D) - Solid D to Likely D
NH-01: OPEN (D) - Lean D to Likely D
NH-02: Kuster (D) - Likely D to Solid D
CA-16: Jim Costa (D) - Central Valley: Fresno, Merced Likely Democratic. A district Hillary Clinton carried by 21 points is an unlikely battlefield in the "blue wave" of 2018, but this Central Valley seat behaves totally differently in midterms when Latino turnout plummets. In 2012 and 2016, the seven-term Costa won reelection comfortably with over 57 percent. But in 2010 and 2014, he failed to crack 52 percent. He can't take his race for granted this fall either. Despite President Trump's unpopularity here, Costa may
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