In 2022, Republicans won more votes cast in House races than Democrats nationally by about three points, 50.6%-47.8%. And across the 400 House seats where both major parties were represented on the ballot, the median Democratic House candidate underperformed President Joe Biden’s 2020 margin in their district by 5.1 points. In a typical midterm year, that kind of weakness would have been enough to produce a robust GOP majority.
But in the seats that mattered most, it was a different story: Across the 64 districts we rated as competitive (Lean or Toss Up), the median Democrat ran just 2.9 points behind Biden’s margin. In 20 of those 64 districts, Democrats even outran Biden’s performance from two years prior. As a result, Democrats swept 27 of the 36 races in our Toss Up column — and in a surprise, they came within five seats of holding onto the House.
In some places, the best explanation was that Democrats had strong incumbents with relatively moderate brands who clobbered their GOP opponents in fundraising, like Reps. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07), Dan Kildee (MI-08) and
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