Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120 Republicans sitting in districts where Trump won by less in 2016, 19 aren't running for reelection and 70 more were first elected after 2008 -- in other words, they haven't had to run in this type of political environment before.

"If you aren't running like you're 10 points down - start now. Outside groups aren't your campaign," tweeted Republican ad marker and former NRCC Executive Director Liesl Hickey. Noting that Lamb outraised Republican Rick Saccone $3.9 million to $917,000, Hickey warned, "If GOP candidates don't have their own money to make a connection with voters this year, they will face a similar fate."

Republicans are the heavy favorites in the April 24 special election in Arizona's 8th CD, but they could have bigger problems in another on August 7. Ohio's 12th CD is a lot like Pennsylvania's 18th CD — it combines well-educated suburbs with a lot of old

More from the Cook Political Report

October briefing
Events
Cook Politcal Logo
Dems can't count on more good news
National Politics
Photo of Charlie Cook
AW
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo