GOP Rep.-Elect Debbie Lesko's victory over Democratic physician Hiral Tipirneni in this week's AZ-08 special election wasn't supposed to be this close. Lesko's five-point margin in a district President Trump carried by 21 points is surprising because neither Lesko nor Tipirneni sported extraordinary strengths (like Conor Lamb) or weaknesses (like Roy Moore), and the leading voter bloc in Arizona's 8th CD is Fox News-watching retirees.

Arizona's 8th CD is the latest in a string of underwhelming GOP special election performances that call into question just how many Republican seats are truly safe in November. For example, GOP Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-06) sits in a next-door seat in north Phoenix that's much younger and more suburban and gave Trump just 52 percent (compared to 57 percent in AZ-08). His seat moves from the Solid Republican to Likely Republican column.

But the next migraine for Republicans may be the August 7 special election in Ohio's 12th CD, where GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned in January to head the Ohio Business Roundtable.

Ohio's 12th CD combines professional suburbs of Columbus with rural

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