Incumbency may not be what it used to be, but most sitting House members still hold at least a slight advantage over candidates who challenge them. The benefits to being a sitting member include access to fundraising networks, support from outside groups, and local relationships that take time to develop.
That incumbency advantage is often heightened in competitive districts, where a well-established personal brand can make the difference between reelection and defeat. So, when members who represent competitive districts decide not to run, the opposing party typically feels more optimistic about their chances of flipping the seat.
At this point in the cycle, just one truly competitive seat is currently open: Michigan’s 10th District, currently held by GOP Rep. John James. The Republican congressman announced in April that he’s leaving the seat to run for governor, and since then, several Democrats have launched campaigns.
We’ve rated the race for Michigan’s 10th District Lean Republican, putting it in squarely in the realm of competitive races. (The Cook Political Report defines competitive races as those rated Toss Up, Lean Republican, or Lean
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.