The Cook Political Report’s current outlook estimates that Democrats will gain between 12 and 17 seats in the lower chamber. What’s striking about that estimate is that Democrats could score such a gain on open seats alone if they were to run the table on competitive races in which no incumbent is running. Although it’s unlikely they will do so, the high number of GOP retirements remains the single biggest reason beyond the political environment that Democrats stand to gain double digits again in 2008.
At the moment, Republicans occupy 28 of the 35 open seats across the country – or 80 percent. But according to the Cook Political Report’s latest race ratings, the tally of truly competitive contests is even more lopsided. Fifteen (or more than half) of GOP open seats are vulnerable to Democratic takeover, including three that currently sit in the “Lean Democratic” column and two that sit in the “Likely Democratic” column. Democrats must defend just two open seats – those currently represented by retiring Reps. Bud Cramer (D-AL-05) and Darlene Hooley (D-OR-05); none of
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