House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest updates for districts in which primaries were held on Tuesday, and explains what the conclusion of the Democratic presidential nomination fight may mean in several other districts across the country. We are changing our race ratings in ten districts where we believe Democratic chances of taking Republican-held seats have increased. With these changes, the GOP occupies 21 of the 27 seats now listed in the Toss Up column.
Unlike in the recent special elections held in Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi, turnout in November is more likely to be universally high than unilaterally high, thanks to the presidential race atop the ballot. But this is not helpful news for all House Republicans. Now that Sen. Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, several GOP incumbents will have to work harder than ever before to survive. While hitching their stars to GOP nominee Sen. John McCain will provide them some cover with independents, unprecedented base Democratic turnout looms as a huge threat beyond their control.
GOP Reps. Robin Hayes, Steve Chabot, and Thelma Drake sit
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