Republican Control of the House Likely, but Still Too Close to Call

Though control of the House remains too close to call, Republicans look increasingly likely to maintain their majority. Republicans have won 212 seats, just six shy of the 218 needed.

But House Democrats’ ability to run ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris has blunted their losses. Five Democrats currently hold seats Trump won in 2020 — but there are likely to be even more Democrats holding Trump-won seats in 2025. They still have a narrow path to the majority, but it would require pitching a perfect game in California, where mail-in ballots take days and sometimes weeks to process.

Republicans’ ceiling right now is probably a five-seat gain, which would bring them to 226 seats. But it’s more likely that their majority will be slimmer. They’ve unseated Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright (PA-8) and Susan Wild (PA-7), and picked up the MI-07 open seat. But they also lost three of their New York members: Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (NY-4), Marc Molinaro (NY-19), and Brandon Williams (NY-22).

The majority will likely come down to six races in California that remain too